Anticipated Outcomes of the Israel-Iran Standoff

In a thought-provoking article published under the title "Enough is Enough: Europe Needs to Oppose Israel's Aggression," authors Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt urge Europe to act swiftly to prevent a major war between Israel and Iran. The article, which is a response to the ongoing conflict between the two nations, is written in the wake of significant developments since last Friday's emergency podcast.

The authors, who include Eran Etzion, a former policy planning director for the Israeli foreign ministry and former deputy head of Israel's National Security Council, emphasize the need for European intervention in finding a peaceful solution to the conflict. They do not discuss new perspectives from the Israeli or Iranian sides, but they underscore the potential repercussions of a major war between the two countries.

The article suggests that if America decides to join the war in support of Israel, it could escalate the conflict regionally, increase Iranian retaliations, and complicate diplomatic efforts, potentially drawing the US deeper into a protracted conflict. The potential repercussions of such a war are considered in detail, with the authors highlighting the need for Europe to take action to prevent such a scenario.

Israel's current options in the next one to two months include continued airstrikes on Iran's nuclear and military sites to degrade its capabilities and disrupt its leadership. Iran, on the other hand, can retaliate with ballistic missile strikes and asymmetric responses through proxy groups. A diplomatic resolution remains possible but challenging, contingent on renewed negotiations such as those seen earlier in 2025 but currently suspended. Ceasefires, the authors note, could be fragile and temporary.

The reactions of G7 states are taken into account in the discussion, with the authors advocating for a united European stance against the escalation of violence. The article does not specify any new scenarios for the conflict, but it builds upon the discussions from the emergency podcast, considering possible future scenarios for the conflict.

Ellie Geranmayeh, the deputy director of ECFR's Middle East and North Africa programme, is one of the authors of the article. The piece was published under the title "Autocracy, Inc." by Anne Applebaum. The article does not discuss the likely US response to the conflict, but it implies the potential impact of European actions on US involvement.

In conclusion, the authors call on Europe to take immediate action to prevent a major war between Israel and Iran. They emphasize the importance of diplomatic resolutions and the need for European involvement in finding a peaceful solution to the conflict. The article serves as a call to action for Europe, urging it to play a more active role in resolving the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran.