Australia's influence in the developing international strategic design

In the evolving global political landscape, Australia finds itself at the forefront of a potential realignment of alliances. The most likely scenario sees Australia cooperating multilaterally to counter China risks, with the U.S., India, Japan, and a handful of Southeast Asian countries at the center.

This multilateral approach is a response to the growing concerns about China's aspirations, which extend far beyond its own shores and immediate neighborhood. Reports suggest that China conducted live-fire exercises near Australian waters without prior notification, demonstrating its massively enhanced naval power. Chinese warships appeared in the waters off Australia in spring 2025, adding to the tension.

The second likely scenario involves a strengthened and expanded security alliance consisting of the United Kingdom and Commonwealth members such as New Zealand, Canada, and Australia. This alliance could serve as a counterbalance to China's influence in the region. The common values of the West are once again moving into the center of cooperation, which may get a renewed boost once the U.S. moves beyond the Trump era.

The tensions and antagonism that plague U.S.-Canadian relations are not present in the U.S.-Australia case. This could make a UK-Commonwealth alliance more appealing to Australia, as it seeks to balance its relations with the U.S. and China.

Public perception varies significantly between the two countries. Australia views China as a security threat, while Beijing sees Canberra as aligned with Washington's efforts to contain China. This divergence in perspective underscores the complexity of the situation and the need for careful diplomacy.

The Australian government has begun discussing rearmament, but it is unclear whether Canberra has the economic and political means to achieve a credible deterrence. This uncertainty highlights the challenges Australia faces in navigating the geopolitical landscape.

Canberra, too, has to be wary of the solidity of American support and reliability. The administration of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has shown considerable skill in engaging with President Trump, but the future of U.S.-Australia relations remains uncertain.

There is a significant asymmetry in economic, demographic, political, and military fields between China and Australia. This asymmetry, coupled with the potential for conflict, makes Australia's strategic position precarious.

In this context, Australia's decision to cooperate multilaterally or to join a UK-Commonwealth alliance is a strategic move aimed at ensuring its security and stability in the face of growing Chinese influence. The outcome of these decisions will have far-reaching implications for the region and the world.