Beach research experts from Scripps Oceanography reveal an accommodating warning tool, designed to inform swimmers about water contamination issues on beaches.
The Pathogen Forecast Model, developed by UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography, is a groundbreaking tool that predicts sewage contamination levels along beaches from Coronado down to Playas de Tijuana up to five days in advance.
This innovative model integrates weather data, tides, waves, offshore currents, river flows, and ocean transport patterns to estimate the concentration of sewage pathogens nearshore and the associated swimmer illness risk hour by hour.
The model, hosted by the Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS) at Scripps, is publicly available on their dedicated website and offers detailed forecasts of shoreline sewage concentrations and swimmer illness risks at key locations including Playas de Tijuana, Imperial Beach, Silver Strand State Park, and Coronado.
The development of the Pathogen Forecast Model builds on over a decade of research by Scripps oceanographers such as Falk Feddersen and Sarah Giddings, who studied pollution transport through experiments tracing nearshore currents and developed coastal pathogen and human illness models for the region.
The pathogen forecast estimates how ocean currents and environmental factors move sewage-contaminated water, allowing prediction of contamination spread along the coast. Improvements, including more accurate norovirus risk forecasts, are planned for future versions expected by summer 2026.
The model responds to a longstanding problem of raw sewage from Mexico circulating in the coastal ocean on both sides of the border, leading to beach closures and impacts to the community's physical and mental health. The County of San Diego Beach & Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program reports official beach water quality conditions daily, and advisories, warnings, and closures can be found at County of San Diego Beach Water Quality.
The Pathogen Forecast Model was developed with funding from the state of California to protect public health while officials seek ways to address the causes of the sewage problem. Additional funds for expansion of this tool were included in the Fiscal Year 2026 Commerce Justice Science and Related Agencies Appropriations bill approved by the House Appropriations Subcommittee last week.
Other research from UC San Diego scientists suggests that pathogens and chemicals sourced to the sewage can become airborne even several miles inland. The County of San Diego also maintains the Tijuana River Valley Sewage Crisis Environmental Dashboard.
U.S. Representative Scott Peters (CA-50) expressed support for the inclusion of the Community Project Funding request for the Pathogen Forecast Model. The research team, led by Scripps oceanographer Falk Feddersen and coastal physical oceanographer Sarah Giddings, plans to continually improve the Pathogen Forecast Model.
Scripps Oceanography is one of the world's most important centers for global earth science research and education. In 2015, researchers released pink dye in Imperial Beach to reveal the movement of nearshore currents, providing an illustration of pollution transport up the coast. The Pathogen Forecast Model represents a significant advancement for managing the longstanding transboundary sewage pollution issue impacting beaches along the San Diego-Tijuana border area.
- Science plays a crucial role in developing the Pathogen Forecast Model, an oceanographic research tool.
- The workplace-wellness of coastal communities may improve with the help of this model predicting sewage contamination levels.
- Health-and-wellness could potentially be boosted as the model reduces the risk of swimmer illnesses.
- Fitness-and-exercise enthusiasts might find the coastal beaches safer to engage in their activities.
- Mental-health could see benefits due to reduced exposure to sewage-related health risks.
- Skin-care is among the aspects people consider when deciding to swim, and the model's predictions could influence those decisions.
- Therapies-and-treatments for waterborne diseases may receive less demand thanks to the model's accurate predictions of sewage contamination.
- Medicare costs associated with waterborne illnesses might decrease due to the Pathogen Forecast Model's effectiveness.
- Environmental-science plays a part in ensuring the marine ecosystem's health and in developing the model.
- Finance can benefit from less expenditure on treating waterborne diseases thanks to the Pathogen Forecast Model.
- Space-and-astronomy researchers, while focused on the cosmos, may also appreciate the model's advancement in managing transboundary pollution.
- Lifestyle is another aspect impacted by water quality, and the model aims to improve it by reducing health risks associated with sewage.
- Fashion-and-beauty enthusiasts may prefer cleaner beaches for photoshoots and other activities in the coastal region.
- Food-and-drink businesses could benefit from this model as safer beach conditions allow them to operate more easily.
- Home-and-garden owners residing near the coast may value the model's ability to maintain water quality and coastal cleanliness.
- Businesses in the San Diego area could grow due to increased confidence in beach safety.
- Personal-finance can be protected from unexpected medical costs related to waterborne illnesses through the model's predictions.
- Gadget lovers can stay informed about water quality trends thanks to the Pathogen Forecast Model.
- Technology, in general, aids in the development and operation of the model, enhancing decision-making and safety.
- Artificial-intelligence powers the Pathogen Forecast Model, providing accurate predictions of sewage contamination levels.
- Relationships and family bonding could be fostered more easily with fewer beach closures due to the model's effective predictions.
- Pets, a significant part of families, can stay safe from waterborne diseases due to the model's predictions.
- Travellers expecting a beach vacation can check the Pathogen Forecast Model to plan their trips more confidently.
- Car owners can look forward to cleaner beaches, which will add to the overall aesthetics of the coastal region.
- Book lovers may find inspiration in the scientific advancements behind the Pathogen Forecast Model.
- Education-and-self-development can be enhanced by understanding the importance of oceanographic research and its practical applications.
