Betting odds, suggestions, and forecasts for the Sinner vs Bublik matchup

In the fourth round of the US Open, tennis fans are in for an exciting match as Jannik Sinner takes on Alexander Bublik at Flushing Meadows in Queens, New York. The match is set to start at 7 pm ET, with ESPN+ providing the broadcast coverage.

The total games over/under for the match is set at 32.5, but Bublik's proficiency as a returner could make it difficult for Sinner to keep the match under this mark. Bublik has a 77% first-serve points won rate and a 40% break-point conversion rate this season, just three percentage points lower than Sinner's.

Sinner, currently listed as a -1600 moneyline favorite, has a 34-4 overall record in 2025, with his only loss this year, other than to Carlos Alcaraz, being against Alexander Bublik on grass. Sinner has reached the final in all but one of the six tournaments he's played this year.

Bublik, on the other hand, comes back as a +900 underdog. He has made it to the quarters at Roland Garros and racked up titles in Halle, Gstaad, and Kitzbuhel. Fresh off a five-set triumph over Tommy Paul, where he didn't drop his serve once, Bublik has an 11-match winning streak. He has also produced 154 winners at the US Open, over twice as many as Sinner (74).

Bublik's excellent return game will make Sinner's inconsistent first serve problematic in this matchup. However, Bublik has enough firepower to go blow-for-blow with Sinner from the baseline. With 437 aces this year, Bublik is sure to test Sinner's returning skills.

The last time Jannik Sinner was eliminated in a quarterfinal at a hard-court Grand Slam tournament was after the 2024 Australian Open. Since then, Sinner has reached the quarterfinals in the 2025 US Open and continued onward, as of September 2025 he was still advancing past quarterfinals on hard courts.

Tune into ESPN+ to catch this thrilling encounter between two talented players, Jannik Sinner and Alexander Bublik, in the fourth round of the US Open.