Catastrophic drought in decades imperils Syria's delicate reintegration from prolonged civil conflict

In the heart of the Middle East, Syria is grappling with a severe drought that has left farmers like Mansour Mahmoud al-Khatib struggling to keep his land fertile. The situation is particularly dire in Syria, where rainfall has been declining for decades and the country has been using water at an unsustainable rate.

Al-Khatib's land, which in a good year could produce 800 to 900 kilograms of wheat per dunam, yielded about a quarter that much this year. The groundwater table is going lower and lower, requiring more energy to pump and posing the risk of running out. In some monitoring wells in Idlib province, the groundwater has dropped by more than 10 metres in just three months, due to farmers overpumping.

Syria's farmers used to produce enough wheat to meet the country's domestic needs, but during the war, the annual yield dropped to 2.2 million to 2.6 million tonnes and the government had to import 60 to 70% of its wheat. This year's harvest is expected to yield only 1 million tonnes, forcing the country to spend more of its strained resources on imports.

The Orontes River (also known as the Assi) in Syria's Idlib province has dried up, with dead fish found in the river bed. The river is an important source of irrigation water and income for fishermen in the province. Similarly, a dam on the Litani River in neighboring Lebanon's Bekaa Valley is experiencing a gradual decline in water due to climate change.

The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East are experiencing the worst drought in decades. Climate change makes some regions wetter and others drier, and the Middle East and Mediterranean are among those that are drying out. Matti Kummu, a professor at Aalto University in Finland who specializes in global food and water issues, focusing on the interaction between human populations and earth systems, has stated that the Mediterranean and Middle East regions are becoming increasingly dry due to climate change, with Syria as a particularly severe case showing reduced rainfall over the past 40 years and unsustainable water use leading to groundwater depletion.

The drought isn't the only major issue facing Syria, where postwar reconstruction is projected to cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Rivers and lakes are drying up, crops are shriveling, and there are days-long tap water cutoffs in major cities. Most experts agree that Syria and the broader region are heading towards worse climate shocks, which they aren't prepared to absorb.

Despite the challenges, there are measures Syria could take to mitigate the impacts of the drought. These include increased rainwater harvesting, switching to more drought-tolerant crops, and improving irrigation systems. By taking these steps, Syria could hope to ensure a more sustainable future for its agricultural sector and its people.