Chancellor's justified concern over potential recurrence of a bond market crisis, as per Hamish McRae's assessment
The US economy is facing a resurgence of inflation, with the current rate standing at 2.7%. This upward trend is causing concern among economists and policymakers alike. As Jerome Powell prepares to leave office in the spring, the search for his successor as the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve is underway. Potential candidates include Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, and Kevin Warsh, with the Trump administration favouring a Fed Chair who might pursue lower interest rates, potentially impacting inflation control policies.
Across the Atlantic, the UK's financial competence is facing scrutiny, with global confidence fragile. The recent attempts by former prime minister Liz Truss to sack one of the Bank of England's governors, Lisa Cook, have added to the uncertainty. A run on gilts (British Government IOUs) became inevitable when the OBR was pushed aside by Liz Truss, causing fear among investors and economists alike. The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is now fearful of a run on gilts or sterling.
The Bank of England was given the authority to set interest rates since 1997, a move aimed at providing independence and stability to the UK's monetary policy. However, the current situation is testing this independence, with the UK paying more to fund its national debt than any other major economy.
In France, Eric Lombard, the finance minister, has warned that France may need to seek a bailout from the IMF. This is a worrying development for the European economy, especially given the fragile state of the UK's financial sector.
The US and the UK, due to their lack of global role and support from the European Central Bank or mass savers in Japan, are particularly exposed in these turbulent economic times.
It's important to note that governments worldwide, including the US, UK, and France, are borrowing at an unsustainable rate. This trend is a cause for concern, as it could lead to financial instability in the future.
Donald Trump has repeatedly called for the chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell, to cut rates. However, the independence of the Federal Reserve means that it makes decisions based on economic data and its mandate, not political pressure.
The IMF's stamp of approval is crucial for countries to secure loans from other sources. As the global economic landscape continues to evolve, it's clear that the role of central banks and international financial institutions will be more important than ever.
For those interested in investing, platforms such as AJ Bell, Hargreaves Lansdown, interactive investor, InvestEngine, Trading 212 offer a range of opportunities to learn more and get started. As always, it's essential to do your research and consider your financial goals before making any investment decisions.
Lisa Cook, one of the governors of the Federal Reserve, is currently going through a court case for allegedly giving two addresses as her primary residence. The outcome of this case could have implications for the Fed and its decision-making process.
In conclusion, the global economy is facing challenging times, with inflation surging in the US, fragile confidence in the UK, and warnings of potential bailouts in France. Central banks and governments will need to navigate these challenges carefully to maintain stability and promote growth.
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