Comparison of Decarbonisation Approaches for Trucks in Europe: Assessing Total Cost of Ownership

A comprehensive study on the economic performance of various truck powertrains has projected that battery electric powertrains will be the most cost-effective technology before 2030. The study, which covers various truck classes and projects the analysis until 2040, updates fuel and energy costs to reflect changes between 2020 and 2023.

The research finds that battery electric trucks have a lower Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) compared to conventional trucks with alternative fuels before 2040. TCO parity with diesel for battery electric powertrains is anticipated between 2025 and 2026 for heavy-duty long-haul trucks. In the medium- and light-duty urban trucks segment, battery electric powertrains are already at TCO parity with diesel counterparts.

Zero-emission trucks, including those powered by battery electric powertrains, are expected to have up to 15% lower TCO compared to conventional trucks powered by e-diesel and bio-CNG for long-haul trucks. This advantage is projected to grow over time, with TCO for trucks running on e-diesel and bio-CNG being 15% to 45% higher than zero-emission counterparts by 2030, depending on truck class.

Hydrogen combustion trucks, while expected to record better TCO than conventional trucks powered by e-diesel and bio-CNG in the long term, are unable to match the economic performance of zero-emission or diesel counterparts. Hydrogen fuel-cell powertrains are projected to become cost-competitive with diesel trucks by 2035, but will remain 25% to 45% more expensive than battery electric trucks by 2040, driven by the price of green hydrogen fuel and higher fuel consumption.

Trucks running on 100% HVO may record better TCO than e-diesel and bio-CNG by 2030, but still 20% to 30% more expensive than battery electric trucks. HVO, e-diesel, and bio-CNG are not expected to reach TCO parity with diesel before 2040.

Key companies and organizations active in implementing alternative truck technologies include Mercedes-Benz Trucks, which is producing battery-electric trucks like the eActros 600 with advanced technology for heavy-duty long-haul transport, and the startup Volta Trucks, which develops fully electric 16-ton trucks designed for urban delivery and is expanding in Europe including Germany. Additionally, Electra operates as an infrastructure provider creating and managing public high-power charging stations across Europe, essential for electric truck adoption.

The study focuses on the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) as a crucial factor influencing the adoption of alternative technologies. It is worth noting that the potential for cost-effective solutions for long-haul cross-border applications with battery electric powertrains before 2030, given a high-power MW public charging infrastructure, presents an exciting opportunity for the future of sustainable trucking.

Comparison of Decarbonisation Approaches for Trucks in Europe: Assessing Total Cost of Ownership