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As the year 2024 draws to a close, Europe's new-car markets are experiencing a mix of positive and negative trends.
In France, the market is expected to end the year with negative new-car registrations, following a 12.7% drop in November. This second-worst decline of the year was accompanied by a 31.5% fall in petrol registrations and a 33.3% decrease in diesel registrations. However, the battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market saw a slight increase of 0.1% in the first 11 months of the year, while hybrid vehicles held a significant 42.3% market share in November.
Italy is also facing a potential year-end decline, with its new-car market expected to close the year with a 1% decline compared to 2023. The Italian market has seen four consecutive months of declines, with November marking a 10.8% decline. Petrol and diesel deliveries fell by 12.3% and 20.7% respectively, while BEV registrations dropped by 17.4% year on year. Interestingly, hybrid vehicles have been the best-selling drivetrain in Italy this year, with registrations up 10.2%.
On a more positive note, Spain's new-car market saw a 6.4% increase in November, with 83,339 registrations. The country is on track to meet its delivery target of one million vehicles in 2024. Spain's hybrid market also saw growth of 30.4% in November, with 35,111 units registered.
The analysis of the market at the end of 2024 in France promises to be particularly complex. The French Government is finalizing plans to reduce incentives on private purchases of BEVs, with subsidies set to decrease from up to €7,000 to a figure of up to €4,000. This move could potentially impact the BEV market, which could struggle in 2025 due to the reduction in incentives.
According to Autovista24, France needs to sell approximately 170,000 new cars and Italy about 90,000 new cars in December 2024 to ensure a positive year-end result in their new car markets. Orders where the vehicle will be delivered before February 2025 will benefit from the previous funding, providing a potential boost to the end-of-year sales.
In Italy, the reduction in incentives is expected to take effect on 29 November. This could have an impact on the market, as the Italian new-car market has seen a decline in all powertrains in November, with no powertrain recording growth.
In conclusion, while some markets are experiencing growth, others are facing declines. The end of 2024 promises to be a critical period for Europe's new-car markets, with the analysis of the market in France expected to be particularly complex due to the reduction in incentives for BEVs.
