Counties deprived of financial aid despite promises of devolution, leaving them with only crumbs or dessert-like options instead of substantial support.

The 9th Devolution Conference (DevCon 2025) concluded last week, marking a significant milestone in the third wave of devolution (2023-2027). The conference, themed "For People, For Prosperity - Devolution as a Catalyst for Equity, Inclusion, and Social Justice," aimed to crystallize commitments into costed and time-bound action plans.

The conference highlighted the substantial investment needs across the country. The combined investment needs of all 47 County Integrated Development Plans (CIDPs) amount to Sh5.3 trillion, with additional joint national-county projects totalling Sh2 trillion. These figures underscore the need for increased budgetary allocation to counties to accelerate development and close the socio-economic divide.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) includes four commitments to protect and strengthen devolution. These commitments include transferring all devolved functions to counties, increasing the budgetary allocation to counties, and ensuring timely and predictable disbursement of funds to counties. A five-member committee, consisting of two members appointed by each party and an independent chairperson, has been authorized to oversee the protection and strengthening of devolution.

The national level in our devolved system of government is not often discussed at DevCon, despite being an essential part of devolution. However, the potential fiscal risk arising from a mismatch between funding allocated to county governments and their service delivery obligations was a topic of concern. The World Bank's May 2025 Public Finance Review noted this potential risk, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to funding allocation.

Across the three days of DevCon 2025, there were plenary sessions and side events with themes of Good Governance, Human Rights and Social Justice, and Financial Equity and Inclusion. Homa Bay county, County Number 43, gained prominence as the "go to" place for major national, regional, and local-level events, having seen an investment and infrastructure boom, with new businesses, roads, and recreational facilities.

Between 2013/14 and 2023/24, 77% of public spending in agriculture was national, and only 23% was at the county level. The same trend is observed in health (48:52) and transport (88:12). In a proper understanding of devolution, isn't it the Sh23.4 trillion total (national government's investment need plus county investment needs) that we should be looking at, not just the county investment needs?

For the current third wave of devolution, the equity, inclusion, and social justice theme for DevCon 2025 should capture an honest take on human welfare and wellbeing outcomes, not just service delivery outputs. The BETA/Fourth Medium-Term Plan of Vision 2030 shows that the national government's 2023-2027 investment need is Sh16.1 trillion across Kenya.

As we move forward, it is crucial to ensure that the commitments made at DevCon 2025 are translated into actionable plans to bridge the socio-economic divide and achieve the goals of equitable development and social justice. Aggregate public spending between 2013/14 and 2024/25 hit roughly Sh31 trillion, with an aggregate county equitable share of about Sh3.3 trillion, or 10.6%. These figures underscore the need for increased budgetary allocation to counties to accelerate development and close the socio-economic divide.