Diplomatic interaction between China and North Korea exhibits a delicate dance of politics

In a historic display of unity, Chinese President Xi Jinping, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and Russian President Vladimir Putin attended a grand military parade in Beijing on September 9, 2024. The parade, marking the 80th anniversary of Japan's defeat, signified a strong bond between the three leaders, with Kim Jong Un's presence indicating an equal partnership.

The meeting between the three leaders is symbolic, projecting solidarity on security matters. However, there's a slight shift in US trade policy towards China, which may have a ripple effect on Russia and North Korea. This alliance, despite their united dislike for the US, the West, human rights, the rule of law, and democracy, is seen as one of convenience by analysts, with diverging policy priorities.

Kim Jong Un's visit to Beijing offers an opportunity to play the two powers off against each other. This strategy is reminiscent of Kim Il Sung, the founder of North Korea, who played Beijing off against Moscow in the 1970s and '80s. The North Korean leader may welcome joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), as it would align North Korea's economic interests with other member states and provide access to vast resources.

China, being North Korea's closest ally since the 1950 Korean War, is likely to identify North Korea as a member of the "Global South" nations and eligible to receive greater economic assistance from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In contrast, China does not want North Korea to get too close to Russia.

Both China and North Korea feel that it's time to get closer on non-security issues, to focus on their common trade and economic needs. The North Korean economy expanded by 3.7% in 2024, the fastest growth in eight years, with exports rising 10.8% and the mining and manufacturing sectors seeing the largest growth, fueled by "expanded cooperation with Russia."

US President Donald Trump is considering relaxing tariff pressure on China, which has been damaging to both the US and Chinese economies. Trump has also expressed a willingness to meet Kim Jong Un. Trump has also stated that he is willing to visit Xi Jinping in Beijing in the coming months.

However, North Korea, being less powerful, could be considered a wild card in the alliance. Kim Jong Un has provided troops and weapons for the war in Ukraine, seeking reciprocity and greater freedom from China. This move could potentially disrupt the balance of power in the alliance.

In conclusion, the tripartite rally in Beijing marks a significant development in international relations, with potential implications for global security and economy. The alliance between Xi, Kim, and Putin, while projecting a united front against external pressures, is fraught with complexities and potential areas of conflict.

Diplomatic interaction between China and North Korea exhibits a delicate dance of politics