Disarray in France: A Look at the Country's Current Unrest

France Heads to National Assembly Elections Amid Political Fragmentation

France is gearing up for the National Assembly elections, scheduled for June 30th and July 7th, following the dissolution of the previous assembly by President Emmanuel Macron on June 9th. The political landscape in the country is complex and fragmented, with no strong political center.

Unlike in Germany, postal voting is not an option in France. Voters must visit a polling station or issue a proxy to another person. However, French citizens abroad have the option to vote online due to the great distances to polling stations.

The pro-Macron alliance Renaissance is fighting for survival in these elections. The outgoing President of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, described the dissolution as "brutal". The government's lack of significant efforts towards a more conciliatory coexistence with the opposition has contributed to the political fragmentation.

The new coalition "Le Nouveau Front Populaire" (NFP) is a left-wing alliance, but the exact parties constituting it are not yet clear. The opposition consists of an alliance of far-left (La France Insoumise (LFI)) and left-wing parties, a homogeneous block of far-right parties (Rassemblement National (RN)), various centrist and right-wing parties like Les Républicains (LR), and small parties.

Street campaigning plays a significant role in France, with encounters at markets and smaller election meetings essential. Election campaigns are strictly regulated, with limited expenses and centralized poster placement. Paid political advertising on radio and television is prohibited in France.

Projections suggest that the presidential majority would suffer significant losses, with an average of 96 seats, compared to 250 seats before the dissolution. Estimates for the number of seats won by the presidential majority range between 65 and 130. The outcome of the elections is uncertain, with various scenarios possible, from a parliament without clear majority relations to an absolute majority for the Rassemblement National.

The political fragmentation has made legislative work difficult and heated debates have ensued, particularly on controversial topics like the pension reform. The dissolution of the National Assembly was made five days before the start of UEFA Euro 2024, raising questions about the timing and potential impact on the elections.

The elections come amidst a diverse and fragile opposition in the Palais Bourbon since 2022. The government has faced heated debates and difficult legislative work, reflecting the complex political landscape in France. The elections will be closely watched as they could shape the future direction of the country.