Discussing earlier events and looking forward to what lies ahead: a conversation with Aziz Rafiee

In the heart of winter, the Afghan government is set to host the second Bonn Conference, a critical gathering aimed at shaping Afghanistan's future beyond 2014. The conference, chaired by the Afghan government, will bring together international actors, neighbouring countries, and key stakeholders to discuss transition, international commitment, peace, reconciliation, and reintegration programs, and security.

Over the past ten years, Afghanistan has witnessed significant achievements, according to Aziz Rafiee. These advancements include increased awareness and participation, educational advancements, infrastructure development, economic growth, and media freedom. Quantitative achievements include thousands of kilometers of road rehabilitation and construction, over 13,000 schools, more than 10,000 clinics and hospitals, over 150 radio channels, over 32 TV channels, thousands of newspapers, magazines, and other publications.

However, concerns linger about the capacity of the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police to maintain peace and security after the withdrawal of international forces in 2014. The Taliban's participation in the conference is uncertain due to their maintained positions and potential influence from regional intelligence.

The Bonn Conference this winter should especially focus on the human rights situation in Afghanistan, particularly the rights and protection of women under the Taliban regime. There are significant concerns about the Taliban’s repression of women's rights activists and limited space for civil society, which challenges the inclusion of their voices in such conferences. The willingness of the Afghan government to include civil society remains doubtful given the restrictive conditions under Taliban rule and reports of repression against activists and women.

Uncertainty exists regarding the representation of the Afghans and civil society in the conference. It is unclear whether the Afghan government is willing to include civil society in the development of the country or if their voices will be heard at the conference. To sustain itself from 2014, Afghanistan needs to build up its capacity, empower its people, coordinate and harmonize development and democratic institution building, and establish a functioning judiciary to improve trust between the government and people.

The neighboring countries, including Pakistan, India, and Iran, play a significant role in the development in Afghanistan due to their concerns about the future, positions, access to resources, economic gains, political and geographical security, and strategic depth.

In three years, more than 6,000 post-graduate students are expected to return to Afghanistan from abroad, potentially bringing fresh ideas and perspectives to the table. A 'new strategy' was developed in January 2010 to support and protect the Afghan people and intensify the training of Afghan security forces.

The interview for this article was taken by Caroline Bertram. Rafiee notes a lack of coordination in development plans, with many plans made based on international actors' desires rather than local or national demands. This conference provides an opportunity to address these issues and chart a course for a more inclusive and sustainable future for Afghanistan.