Dynamic Interplay between Parade Showcases in Beijing and Washington DC: Assessing Anwar's Ability to Prevent Escalation

In October 2025, the ASEAN and East Asia Summit meetings will take place in Kuala Lumpur, under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Ibrahim Anwar. These meetings, representing ASEAN countries and the broader East Asian region, are significant, offering a rare opportunity to address pressing issues, particularly those concerning the militarisation of contested seas and the security dilemma.

The South China Sea, a region where US strategy and Chinese assertion collide, is crucial for ASEAN. It is vital that excess militarisation, suspicion, and the avoidance of maritime confidence-building measures are avoided, as they can derail economic interdependence. Instead, ASEAN must go beyond the Code of Conduct and emphasise the importance of cooperative norms, maritime confidence-building measures, and inclusive multilateralism.

Anwar Ibrahim, as the chairman of ASEAN, is perceived as balanced and dialogical, having cultivated ties with both Brics leaders and US President Donald Trump. Malaysia, never having had a coup in its 68 years, presents itself as a stable democratic convener. Ibrahim's advantage lies in his credibility, which few regional leaders possess.

The security dilemma arises when projection is misread as aggression. China arms to secure itself, but others see threat and rearm in response. This cycle can lead to a dangerous escalation, as seen in the case of the South China Sea. Beijing's emphasis on sovereignty, "national rejuvenation," and the prevention of encirclement can be viewed as defensive or expansionist, depending on perspective.

In a recent military parade in Beijing, China showcased hypersonic missiles, underwater drones, laser weapons, and AI-enhanced systems. While this parade was a statement of China's technological advancement, military preparedness, and national resolve, it also raised concerns about the arms race in the region.

However, the Kuala Lumpur summit could potentially reset the narrative, shifting from projection to dialogue between the major powers. The parade's purpose was not to signal intent for war, but to demonstrate capabilities. The summit must institutionalise both reassurance at home through deterrence and reassurance abroad through dialogue.

Military parades are not unique to China; they are used by countries like the US, Russia, and India to project resolve and reassure domestic audiences. Hypersonic glide vehicles, unmanned maritime platforms, and space-based sensors are designed to reduce strategic vulnerability in contested zones such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

The Kuala Lumpur summits will be anchored around the theme of "managing power transitions without war." The personal opinion expressed in this article does not necessarily represent the views of the website. As a scholar of ASEAN Studies, Phar Kim Beng, PhD, Director of the Institute of International and ASEAN Studies (IINTAS) at the International Islamic University of Malaysia, emphasises the importance of dialogue and cooperation in managing these power transitions.

Leaders from the United States, China, Russia, Japan, India, Australia, and Brics counterparts will gather under ASEAN's convening umbrella in Kuala Lumpur. The timing of China's 2025 parade coincides with closer coordination with Russia and North Korea, and an intensifying Sino-American rivalry.

The summit presents an opportunity for these leaders to engage in meaningful dialogue, to build trust, and to promote peace in contested seas. It is a crucial step towards ensuring that Asia's security is built through cooperative norms, rather than through counters and balances.