Economy of Turkey begins yet another week with GDP and inflation statistics looming ahead

The Turkish economy is gearing up for a series of significant announcements in the coming days. On Monday, the second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) will be released, offering insights into the nation's economic growth so far this year.

According to a recent poll, economists expect the Turkish economy to have registered a growth of around 4.1% in the second quarter of 2025. This growth is expected to be driven by base effects and an increase in the number of working days, as suggested by Wall Street bank Citi.

However, global trade wars and the tightened monetary policy in March and April may have cooled the Turkish economy compared to recent years' strong growth. Despite this, the Turkish economy expanded by 2% in the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating resilience in the face of tighter monetary policy.

The Central Bank of Turkey is expected to implement three interest rate cuts of 250 basis points each during the rest of 2025, reducing the policy rate from the current 43.0% level. This move is aimed at stimulating the economy and controlling inflation.

Inflation in Turkey has been on a downward trend, dipping to 33.5% from as high as 75% last May. The annual rate of inflation is seen dipping to 32.6% in August, according to a recent Reuters poll. The monthly inflation rate in Turkey is expected to be 1.79% in August.

The monetary policy committee (MPC) is due to convene on Sept. 11, where these interest rate decisions will likely be discussed. The government's new medium-term program (MTP) covering a three-year period between 2026 and 2028 is expected to be announced at the beginning of September.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) is due to release August inflation data at 10:00 a.m. (7:00 a.m.) GMT on Sept 3. The Trade Ministry, alongside Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM), is also expected to announce preliminary foreign trade data for August on the same day.

The government forecasted a growth of 4% for 2025, 4.5% for 2026, and 5% for 2027 in its last MTP released last fall. With economists expecting to see an expansion of somewhere between 2.9% and 3.1% this year, slightly lower than last year, according to the polls, it will be interesting to see how the economy performs in the coming quarters.

Economy of Turkey begins yet another week with GDP and inflation statistics looming ahead