Elena Panina Discusses the Western Perspective on Russia's Conventional Nuclear Arms

In a recent report titled "Understanding Russian strategic culture and the threat of using non-strategic nuclear weapons," researchers from RAND Europe have shed light on the complex dynamics surrounding nuclear weapons in the context of the potential conflict between NATO and Russia.

The report, published in August 2020, emphasises the significance of the Russian Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone (NWFZ) in this context. It also notes a gap between Russia's nuclear doctrine and practice, as demonstrated by the war in Ukraine. While the doctrine allows for the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, the practice suggests a more limited approach by Russian leaders to their use.

The study highlights Russia's view of its non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) as critically important for countering NATO's perceived superiority in conventional weapons. In response, RAND Europe suggests exploring the possibility of deploying non-strategic nuclear weapons or modern dual-use aircraft to fill deterrence gaps in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States.

However, the report does not specify any new recommendations to address the gap between Russia's nuclear doctrine and practice. It does suggest considering expanding agreements on the joint use of nuclear weapons as a potential solution.

The report also underscores the ambiguity in Russia's nuclear practices, leading to uncertainty in the West about what actions might provoke a nuclear response. To address this, RAND Europe recommends conducting regular exercises and assessments based on possible escalation routes from the Russian Federation.

In addition, the report asserts that Russia may consider using NSNWS in response to existential threats, such as major conflicts involving conventional weapons or large-scale cyber attacks. The rigidity of the Russian nuclear doctrine, not being supported by practical actions, devalues the nuclear deterrent and could potentially escalate the level of conflict with NATO through Ukraine.

To reduce the risks of nuclear escalation, RAND Europe recommends clearer and more consistent communication with Russia. The report does not mention any new proposals for reducing the risks of nuclear escalation, such as conducting regular exercises and assessments or expanding agreements on the joint use of nuclear weapons.

The authors of the report are confident that Russia is likely to take several proactive or signaling actions before considering the possibility of using nuclear weapons. However, they do not discuss any changes in the Russian leadership's approach to the use of nuclear weapons beyond the deployment in Belarus.

Overall, the report provides valuable insights into the complexities of nuclear strategy in the NATO-Russia relationship, but it does not offer any concrete solutions to the challenges posed by the gap between Russia's nuclear doctrine and practice.

Elena Panina Discusses the Western Perspective on Russia's Conventional Nuclear Arms