England's qualification for Euro 2025 is assured if they triumph over Wales, irrespective of the goal difference.

As the Euro 2025 group stage reaches its climax, the race for qualification in Group D is heating up. England, the Netherlands, and France are locked in a tight battle, with each team having three points so far. Here's a breakdown of the qualification scenarios for each team.

England

England is currently in a strong position, having finished their games against the Netherlands and France with a goal difference of +3 (five goals scored and two conceded). If England wins their upcoming match against Wales, they will secure their spot in the next round.

However, if England and the Netherlands both lose on Sunday, England would still go through as runners-up, as long as they hold Wales to less than a four-goal margin of victory. In the event of a three-way tie for first place, England's goal difference of +3 from their games against the Netherlands and France would give them the advantage.

It's important to note that none of the results against Wales count for anything in the situation where a three-way tie for first place occurs. The tie would be broken by the head-to-head record, and England would be above the Netherlands due to their win against the Dutch.

The Netherlands

The Dutch find themselves in a similar position to England, with three points from their games against England and France. If they win their match against Wales by a 1-0 margin, they would top the group, as they would have a head-to-head goal difference of -3, while England would remain at +3.

However, if the Dutch win by a 1-0 margin, France would be eliminated due to having a goal difference of -6 in the head-to-head standings. If the Dutch lose or draw, they would need England to lose to Wales by a margin of four goals or more to have a chance of qualifying.

France

France, currently leading the group with six points, has a 100% record so far. If they win their match against the Netherlands, they would secure their spot in the next round, regardless of the result between England and Wales.

If France wins and England loses to Wales by a margin of 4 goals or more, Wales would go through alongside France. In such a scenario, France's head-to-head record against England would be better than the Netherlands', regardless of the result between England and Wales.

In the event of a three-way tie for first place, the tie would be broken by the head-to-head record, and France would be above both England and the Netherlands due to their wins against both teams.

Wales

Wales is yet to pick up a point and sits bottom of Group D. Their results in the remaining matches won't affect the qualification of the other teams, but they could play a decisive role in a three-way tie for first place.

In such a tie, Wales results would be disregarded to determine who goes through. The tie would be broken by the head-to-head record, and England and the Netherlands would be compared. If England and the Netherlands both have the same head-to-head record, England would still go through due to their better goal difference.