European Uprisings Sparked by Climate Change Redefined Historical Trajectories

In the late 18th century, France stood on the brink of revolution, a turning point that would reshape global political thought and social structures. But the factors leading to this historic event were not limited to economic and political instability. A new study published in the journal Global and Planetary Change suggests that climate played a role in amplifying existing vulnerabilities, pushing France and other European societies towards crisis.

The French Revolution, which began in 1789, was not an isolated event. The study identifies numerous uprisings clustered around the coldest, driest phases of the "Little Ice Age" in Europe, between 1570 and 1860. France, being an agricultural society, was particularly exposed to these cold winters.

The final blow came that winter, the coldest in nearly a century. Food shortages became famine, malnutrition common, and the revolution unavoidable. This harsh winter followed a series of events that had already strained France's agricultural production. By 1788, production had decreased by over 20%.

The study, led by David Kaniewski at the Université de Toulouse and CNRS, found that extreme climate phases, such as the Dalton Minimum and the 1783 Laki volcanic eruption, triggered famines, bread riots, and accelerated revolutionary events in Europe from the 13th century to 1860. Their analysis shows that climate shocks repeatedly intensified vulnerabilities and social instability, leading to revolutionary unrest.

However, the study also found that these climate-induced crises delayed the onset of revolutions compared to non-climatic periods. For instance, the Flour War, a wave of bread riots in 1775, was a precursor to the French Revolution, but it did not lead to immediate change.

The study warns that climate change can easily alter fragile societies, questioning whether we are really better prepared than 18th century France. The details of the climate crisis today differ from the Little Ice Age, but the dynamic of environmental shocks colliding with fragile politics and widening inequality is familiar.

The weather is getting hotter year after year, triggering extreme events and affecting our already overpressured agricultural systems. While the study does not claim that cold weather caused revolutions, it argues that it acted as a catalyst for unrest. As we navigate the challenges of climate change, it is essential to remember the lessons of history.

In the 18th century, France was a kingdom on the edge, financially bankrupt and socially divided into nobles, clergy, and commoners. Today, we face our own challenges, but understanding the past can help us prepare for the future. The French Revolution serves as a stark reminder of the power of climate to shape history, and the need for resilience in the face of environmental change.