Expanded Influence of the Wagner Group in the Sahel Regions: Implications for Regional Counter-Terrorism Efforts

In the heart of West Africa, Burkina Faso is poised for a significant shift in its counterterrorism efforts, with reports suggesting that it may replace French counterterrorism forces with the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company.

This potential change, if it materialises in the coming months, could have far-reaching implications for the region.

The Wagner Group, now operating under Russia's direct state control in its new Africa Corps iteration, has been expanding its operations in Burkina Faso and other Sahel countries. Its mission is multifaceted, aiming to protect ruling juntas, secure resource interests, and undermine Western influence through propaganda and military support.

However, this shift raises concerns about human rights, regional security, and the future of democracy in Burkina Faso. Unlike France's official forces, the Wagner Group and its associated paramilitary have been linked to extrajudicial killings, torture, and other abuses. Such indiscriminate targeting further deepens ethnic divisions and pushes local communities to seek protection and closer ties with extremist groups.

Moreover, the impact on counterterrorism operations is uncertain. French forces, despite criticism for perceived failures and accusations of supporting terrorists, generally have better relations and coordination with local militaries compared to Wagner's opaque operations. Replacement by Wagner may lead to shifts in local cooperation and effectiveness.

The regional security implications are equally significant. Burkina Faso is part of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), which emphasises coordinated regional counterterrorism efforts. A pivot to Russian mercenaries might complicate Burkina Faso’s integration with ECOWAS and AES initiatives, potentially creating friction or realignment in regional counterterrorism partnerships.

The political and economic effects could be profound. Wagner's presence is tied to supporting military governments and pursuing Russian geopolitical and resource ambitions in the Sahel, potentially prolonging military rule and impacting economic conditions through instability and exploitation.

In sum, while replacing French counterterrorism forces with the Wagner Group might reflect Burkina Faso’s desire to change partners amid failed Western engagements, it carries risks of worsening human rights conditions, altering regional alliances, and embedding Russian influence with uncertain outcomes for security and governance in Burkina Faso.

Sustainable peace in Burkina Faso requires multilateral cooperation, including other African states, with a commitment to respect for human rights and openness to negotiation with ethnic and militant leaders. Western states involved in the Sahel crisis should be mindful of appearing paternalistic and avoiding neocolonial optics, a mistake French President Emmanuel Macron has made on multiple occasions.

This article was written by Broderick McDonald, an associate fellow at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, and Guy Fiennes, an OSINT analyst and resettlement support worker at Asylum Welcome. The views expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.

Data published by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project reveals that civilian deaths skyrocketed as the Wagner Group targeted Fulani tribes and herders in Mali, where it has already been welcomed. Partnership with the Wagner Group and Moscow rather than Western states will also reduce pressure on the regime to respect democratic norms such as press freedom and political dissent.

The use of Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group would threaten broader efforts to contain the rising Salafi-jihadist threat in West Africa. As West Africa becomes a main locus for global militant Islamist movements outside the Middle East, taking constructive steps toward sustainable peace in Burkina Faso is increasingly important.

References:

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/burkina-fasos-junta-leader-asked-french-forces-withdraw-january-report-2023-02-03/
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/04/world/africa/burkina-faso-russia-wagner-group.html
https://www.icahr.org/research/wagner-group-russia-africa-and-the-war-on-terror
https://reliefweb.int/report/burkina-faso/burkina-faso-russian-mercenaries-and-regional-security-concerns
https://www.ecowas.int/en/alliance-for-peace-in-the-sahel-aeps