Expanding Influence of the Wagner Group in the Sahel: Implications for Anti-Terrorism Efforts in the Region
In the coming months, Burkina Faso may replace French military support with that of Russia's Wagner Group, according to many analysts. This shift, if it occurs, will have significant security, geopolitical, economic, and infrastructural impacts.
Security and Military Consequences
Burkina Faso's collaboration with the Wagner Group is part of a broader strategic shift towards Russia and its private military companies for counterinsurgency efforts against jihadist groups in the Sahel region. The Wagner Group aims to strengthen Burkina Faso's military capacity to combat escalating jihadist violence, a challenge that Western partners have struggled to contain. However, concerns about resource extraction favoring Russian interests and prioritizing protection for cooperative leaders persist.
Geopolitical and International Relations Consequences
This pivot towards Russia and the Wagner Group could worsen relations with Western countries, potentially leading to diplomatic tensions or sanctions. Russia's interest extends beyond military cooperation to include nuclear energy agreements and infrastructure development, signaling broader geopolitical ambitions in Burkina Faso.
Economic and Infrastructure Consequences
Cooperation with Russia involves ambitious projects such as building nuclear power plants and developing energy infrastructure to address Burkina Faso's severe electricity shortages. However, the Wagner Group's history suggests risks associated with economic exploitation, particularly in mineral extraction, which could compromise Burkina Faso's sovereignty over its natural resources.
In summary, Burkina Faso's collaboration with the Wagner Group is likely to enhance its counterinsurgency capabilities and infrastructure development but may come at the cost of increased Russian geopolitical influence, strained Western relations, and risks of economic exploitation.
The United States and European states should approach Burkina Faso with caution, focusing on stability, security, and effective governance, without appearing paternalistic or neocolonial. The use of Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group would be a dangerous mistake, given their history of human rights abuses.
The potential increase in civilian casualties, ethnic divisions, and the spread of extremist networks are concerns that must be addressed through multilateral cooperation, including other African states, with a commitment to respect for human rights and openness to negotiate with ethnic and militant leaders.
The brutal tactics of the Wagner Group are likely to affect the aid and foreign direct investment Burkina Faso receives from European partners, potentially exacerbating the ongoing insurgency in the medium to long term as Burkina Faso has fewer economic resources.
As West Africa becomes the main locus for global militant Islamist movements outside the Middle East, taking constructive steps towards sustainable peace in Burkina Faso has never been more important.
[Image Credit: Daniel Tiveau, CIFOR]
References: [1] BBC News. (2023, January 15). Burkina Faso leader asks France to withdraw counter-terror forces. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-60425064
[2] The Diplomat. (2023, February 10). Burkina Faso's Pivot to Russia: Implications and Concerns. Retrieved from https://thediplomat.com/2023/02/burkina-fasos-pivot-to-russia-implications-and-concerns/
[3] Human Rights Watch. (2023, March 1). Burkina Faso: Wagner Group's Presence Risks Human Rights Abuses. Retrieved from https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/03/01/burkina-faso-wagner-groups-presence-risks-human-rights-abuses
[4] Africa Center for Strategic Studies. (2023, February 22). Burkina Faso and the Wagner Group: Implications for Regional Security. Retrieved from https://www.africacenter.org/expert-analysis/burkina-faso-and-the-wagner-group-implications-for-regional-security/
[5] International Crisis Group. (2023, March 8). Burkina Faso: The Wagner Group and the Risks of Escalation. Retrieved from https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/burkina-faso/burkina-faso-wagner-group-and-risks-escalation
