"Exploring potencial alliances for Ukraine's security assurances"

The international community continues to rally around Ukraine as it faces ongoing conflict with Russia. Here's a roundup of recent developments in the ongoing efforts to support Ukraine.

Following a phone call between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US Vice President JD Vance, both sides have agreed to establish teams to collaborate on strengthening sanctions against Russian fossil fuels. This move is aimed at further limiting Moscow's income and exerting pressure on Russia to cease its aggressive actions.

The summer offensive by Russia has been deemed a failure, resulting in massive casualties. However, the use of drones has led to a decrease in the death and injury rate among Russian troops. Despite this, the offensives have not yielded the desired results for Russia, with EU exports to Russia plummeting by 61% since the war, and imports of Russian goods sliding by an even steeper 89%.

The 'Coalition of the Willing', a group of nations committed to supporting Ukraine, agreed on a price cap of $60 (€51) per barrel on Russian oil in December 2022. This decision was made to starve Moscow of income without causing a significant increase in the global oil market price.

In response to the Alaska summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, European leaders have shown renewed resolve to provide moral and military support to Ukraine. Within 48 hours of the summit, seven key European figures met with Trump to steer him away from any notion of Ukraine handing over swathes of the Donbas to Russia.

The focus of the 'Coalition of the Willing' has now shifted to security guarantees for Ukraine. Three pillars have been proposed: the Ukrainian armed forces with no limits on armaments, mobilization, and deployment; a "reassurance" force of international peacekeepers; and the EU's own defense posture with increased military spending and joint projects with Ukraine's arms industry.

Germany and France are among the EU states taking concrete steps to implement a reinforcement force in Ukraine in case of a peace agreement. 35 countries, including Ireland, have given political commitments to support Ukraine in such a scenario at the 'Coalition of the Willing' meeting in Paris.

However, there is uncertainty regarding the stance of key players such as Italy, which is keeping its counsel on its commitment, and Germany's shaky coalition, which has slapped down any talk of a troop commitment. EU sources suggest that in the event of a ceasefire, Merz may be more emboldened to test the Bundestag's willingness.

Senior EU sources indicate that the Trump administration is sanguine about Putin's threats and believes that the Russian president will eventually accept foreign troops as part of a reassurance force. However, European officials remain unconvinced, with Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former NATO secretary general, warning that the security guarantees should be ready before any peace agreement.

Russian exports of Liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the EU are actually increasing, with €92bn worth of Russian LNG entering European ports this year. This trend has raised concerns among European officials, who are discussing ways to pressure the Kremlin by sanctioning countries supporting the Russian war effort through oil purchases and other means.

Despite Moscow's claims that EU sanctions are not working, officials point out that at every meeting between Russian and US officials, sanctions relief is their first demand. It is clear that the international community remains committed to supporting Ukraine and putting pressure on Russia to cease its aggressive actions.