Forecasts indicate an anticipated increase in rainfall for September, elevating the risk to agricultural crops

Published on August 31, 2025

The monsoon season, which has been a mixed bag so far, has shown a surprising turn of events in the second fortnight of August. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was in an unfavorable phase during the initial fortnight but turned favorable during the latter, aiding rainfall across several parts of the country.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts above-normal rainfall for September in most parts of India, especially in northwest and central India, including Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttarakhand. However, some parts of northeast, east India, extreme south peninsular India, and a few northernmost areas are expected to receive below-normal rainfall.

The positive shift in the MJO and the IMD's prediction have brought much-needed relief to areas like Punjab, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Karnataka, and Haryana, which experienced heavy rainfall during the second fortnight of August. This heavy rainfall, unfortunately, has resulted in crop damage in approximately 2.5 lakh hectares in Punjab and 8 lakh hectares in Maharashtra. In Rajasthan, the yield is expected to drop by at least 30% in about 10 lakh hectare areas, with complete damage in some areas where farmers could not re-sow the plants.

The heavy rainfall has also led to floods in Haryana and parts of Rajasthan due to the release of surplus water from reservoirs in Himachal Pradesh. Landslides and flash floods are a concern in Uttarakhand, which could disrupt normal life in Haryana, Delhi, and north-east Rajasthan. Standing crops could be at risk in north Chhattisgarh, east Rajasthan, west Haryana, south Punjab, and Uttarakhand due to the potential for more rainfall than the 'above normal' areas.

Monsoon withdrawal is not expected to start for at least the next two weeks, according to the IMD. Between June 1 and August 31, India received 743.1 mm of rainfall, which is 6% above the long-period average of 700.7 mm. The second fortnight of August had the highest rainfall over the north-west meteorological subdivision since 2001, while the south peninsular region had the third highest.

The IMD's forecast map for September shows a trend of increase in September rainfall since 1980, except in 1986, 1991, 2001, 2004, 2010, 2015, and 2019. This year, the department expects monthly average rainfall over the country as a whole in September to be more than 109% of the long period average (LPA) of 167.9 mm. For the entire season during June-September, the rainfall is predicted to be at least 106% of the amount IMD predicted in April.

In an unusual turn of events, there were 133 events of extremely heavy rainfall (more than 204.5 mm) in August, which is the highest ever recorded. This heavy rainfall has brought both challenges and opportunities, with the need for farmers to adapt and the potential for increased hydroelectric power generation.

As the monsoon season continues, it is crucial for farmers, governments, and the public to stay vigilant and prepared for any potential weather-related challenges. The IMD will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide regular updates on the monsoon's progress and any potential changes in the weather pattern.