Global Ambition: China's Strategy to Contend for World Dominance
China's rise as a global power continues to shape international relations, and its future trajectory has sparked much discussion. Here are some of the possible scenarios that experts are considering:
In an unlikely but possible scenario, China could surpass the United States as the global superpower. This would require continuous economic growth, leadership in artificial intelligence (AI), and an economic crisis in the U.S. However, it's important to note that this is a remote possibility, given the complexities involved.
Another remote scenario is one where China stumbles upon itself. This could happen if the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tightens its grip too much, fearing a loss of control over the country. This move could lead to stagnation and decline, similar to what happened in the past.
Currently, China is maintaining its position as a strong global number two, with potential leadership in specific sectors like energy and AI. In August 2024, over 82 countries joined the "Group of Friends of the Global Development Initiative," further solidifying China's role on the global stage.
However, China's rise has not been without controversy. Its record trade surplus has triggered pushback from global partners, such as the U.S. and the European Union. China's top-down leadership also prevents it from supplanting the international system established by the United Nations and its agencies.
Despite government efforts, domestic consumption remains low in China, and there are no signs of structural reforms to securely and sustainably boost demand. This is a concern, as the middle class in China bears the brunt of the manufacturing-focused strategy, with weak consumption and real estate woes.
China has a significant edge in lowering production costs for humanoid robots, thanks to its comprehensive supply chain. However, the efficiency-driven approach in AI investments aims for break-even in 2028 and a return on invested capital of over 5% by 2030.
Questions persist about the reliability of Chinese economic data, with some analysts suggesting figures may overstate actual growth. Moreover, there is limited room for market-driven innovation in China's AI efforts, as markets play a secondary role behind state security.
In conclusion, while China is undoubtedly a formidable force on the global stage, its future trajectory is filled with challenges and uncertainties. The country's economic health, AI leadership, and domestic consumption patterns will play crucial roles in determining its position in the coming years.
