Immigrant-related violence statistics allegedly inflated are invalid

In recent weeks, a claim about a significant increase in severe violent crimes such as murder, rape, and bodily harm in Germany since 2014 has been circulating on various social media platforms like Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Platform X. However, a closer look at the data reveals that this claim is largely misleading.

The claim, which originated from an unverified source, has been shared by the AfD, individual AfD district associations, and the Berlin AfD state parliamentarian Harald Laatsch. The figures in the image are supposed to reflect crimes involving at least one migrant suspect, but most of the numbers are false or fabricated.

The correct data on crimes in Germany from 2014 to 2023 are contained in the Police Crime Statistics (Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik, PKS) reports published by the Federal Criminal Police Office (Bundeskriminalamt, BKA). These reports record all police-registered offenses and suspects, including both German and foreign suspects, and provide the official figures for various crime categories over the years.

Some numbers in the claim were fabricated, and correct numbers were largely miscategorized. For instance, the number of suspects for bodily injury in 2018 is around 54,500 persons, not the alleged approximately 73,000 suspects. Similarly, the number of suspects for murder and manslaughter in 2018 is 405 persons, not the alleged 430 suspects with the offense "completed murder and manslaughter".

Moreover, the numbers cited in the claim refer to "immigrant" suspects, but most of the numbers come from the BKA's federal crime reports, which are based on PKS data. It's essential to note that the PKS is not a suitable basis for examining a connection between migration/flight and crime, according to Martin Rettenberger, director of the Criminological Central Office.

In the years 2014, 2018, and 2023, the proportion of cases in which immigrants were suspected for the offenses considered was only about 4 to 14 percent. Interestingly, in 2023, non-Germans make up 38 percent of suspects for "crimes against life", about 37 percent for "violent crimes", and about 28 percent of suspects for "crimes against sexual self-determination".

Experts such as Dietrich Oberwittler, group leader at the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Crime, Security, and Law, also caution against viewing the PKS as a true reflection of reality. Oberwittler highlights that violent crime has been declining rather than increasing in the long term.

Misinformation about crime is a known narrative against refugees, and the PKS is often used for misinformation against refugees. It's crucial to verify the sources and accuracy of such claims before sharing them to prevent the spread of misinformation.

Most distributors did not respond to inquiries regarding the validity of the claim, making it challenging to determine its origin and intent. However, it's clear that the picture painted in the claim is false, and the numbers for 2023 in the federal crime report or the police criminal statistics have not been released yet.

In conclusion, while it's important to discuss and address concerns about crime, it's equally crucial to ensure that these discussions are based on accurate and verified data. The misleading claim about a significant increase in severe violent crimes since 2014 is a reminder of the need for vigilance and critical thinking when evaluating information.