Incorrect data reported by BLS, not intentionally manipulated

The latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for July has shown a modest increase of 73,000 jobs, a figure that has been revised downward from previous months, eliminating a total of 258,000 jobs. This sluggish growth has raised concerns about the current state of the jobs market, particularly in light of the ongoing policy changes and uncertainties.

Ryan Young, a colleague at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, has explained that tariffs and policy uncertainty are discouraging businesses from making long-term investments in labor. The ongoing trade disputes and unpredictable policy shifts may have contributed to the turmoil in the jobs market.

President Trump's tariff policies, implemented in April 2020, have been a significant factor in the economic slowdown observed in the summer of that year. The subsequent deal-making with the world has not seemed to alleviate the job market's struggles. Trump has repeatedly alleged without evidence that the jobs report numbers are "RIGGED" to make him look bad, but the BLS data, like that of other government agencies, should be treated with more skepticism as they are estimates made by humans and are fallible.

The BLS has faced budgetary pressure and cost cuts, resulting in some surveys being limited. This has alarmed many statisticians, as the BLS reports are based on a voluntary survey of 121,000 businesses and government agencies, covering an estimated 26 percent of all non-farm employees. The BLS framework is dated and does not account for new types of employment such as ride-sharing and social media influencers.

The firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Friday has raised questions about the future direction of the BLS. Some speculate that the change in leadership may spur the BLS to rethink and improve its methodology, addressing the concerns about the accuracy of the jobs reports and the impact of new forms of employment on the data.

The BLS monthly reports are revised as new data trickles in, and in recent years, the agency has regularly announced major revisions of jobs numbers over the last several decades. For instance, the August 2024 BLS report found that 818,000 fewer jobs had been created between March 2023 and March 2024 than previously determined.

The Biden administration has also faced disappointing official jobs reports, suggesting that the rapid change in the economy may be a factor in the BLS's struggles. The BLS data should not be viewed in isolation but rather as part of a broader picture of the economy's health, taking into account the ongoing policy changes and uncertainties.

In conclusion, the July jobs report shows a sluggish growth in the job market, which may be attributed to various factors, including tariffs, policy uncertainties, and the dated BLS framework. The firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and the subsequent changes in leadership may provide an opportunity for the BLS to rethink and improve its methodology, addressing the concerns about the accuracy of the jobs reports and the impact of new forms of employment on the data.