Increased coal production capacity in China - according to a recent report

China's Coal and Renewable Energy Dilemma

China, the world's second-largest economy and the largest greenhouse gas emitter, is grappling with a significant dilemma in its energy sector. Despite a massive expansion of renewable capacity, the country's increased reliance on coal threatens to derail its pursuit of greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

According to a report by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM), China put 21 gigawatts (GW) of coal power online between January and July 2025. This spike in coal construction and commissioned projects comes at a time when the country is projected to add 500 GW in new wind and solar power in 2025 alone.

The CREA report warns that "powerful coal interests" in China are crowding out renewables. These interests are securing long-term contracts and broad capacity payments, allowing them to keep many plants running at high output. This trend is a concern as China aims to reduce its coal consumption between 2026 and 2030, a goal announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Xi has also announced that he will announce China's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) - a national commitment to greenhouse gas emissions reductions by 2035 - before November's COP30 climate summit in Brazil. However, the specific details of China's NDC have not yet been announced, and Xi has not yet announced a specific timeline for China's coal phase-down beyond 2030.

Despite Beijing's stated goal to remove 30 GW of coal from China's grids between 2020 and the end of 2025, only 1 GW has been taken offline. This discrepancy between policy and implementation is a cause for concern, especially considering that coal currently accounts for half of China's energy production, down from three-quarters in 2016.

However, there is some positive news. Solar capacity in China jumped by 212 GW in the first six months of 2025. This growth is significant, as Beijing is on track to install enough new renewable energy to cover the energy needs of Germany and the UK combined in 2025.

The details of China's 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 are expected when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) releases them in the coming months. This plan will provide more insight into China's future energy strategy and its commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

In conclusion, while China's increased reliance on coal is a concern for its pursuit of greenhouse gas emissions reductions, the country's expansion of renewable capacity offers hope for a cleaner future. The details of China's 15th Five-Year Plan and its Nationally Determined Contributions will be crucial in determining the course of China's energy sector and its impact on the global climate.