intensified expulsion of Afghan refugees by Iran due to security apprehensions
In recent months, Iran has seen a significant increase in the deportation of undocumented Afghan nationals, a trend that carries substantial humanitarian and geopolitical implications.
Reasons for the Increase in Deportations ------------------------------------------
The surge in deportations can be attributed to several factors. In late 2024, Iran revoked the *bargeh sarshomari* (census slips), which previously provided limited legal status to over 2 million Afghans residing in Iran. This revocation left many Afghans vulnerable to deportation.
Furthermore, Iranian authorities have stepped up efforts to deport undocumented Afghans, conducting mass arrests, home raids, and denying access to essential services like health care, legal representation, and asylum procedures. The deportation campaign includes coercion, harassment, abuse, and public anti-Afghan rhetoric, escalating pressure on this population in major Iranian cities.
Scale and Recent Trends ------------------------
Since March 2025, over 640,000 Afghans have returned from Iran, with over 366,000 forcibly deported. Between May and early June 2025 alone, Iranian authorities deported more than 150,000 Afghans. UNHCR and IOM reports indicate a sharp surge, with daily returns from Iran climbing from approximately 5,000 to nearly 30,000 individuals at the peak of the deportations. In the first half of 2025, the total number of Afghan returnees from Iran reached over 700,000, with the vast majority (99%) undocumented.
Humanitarian and Regional Implications --------------------------------------
1. Adverse Return Conditions: Many deportees arrive in Afghanistan under extremely dire conditions—exhausted, hungry, with minimal belongings, and traumatized. Women and girls face particular fears related to restrictions on their freedom and rights inside Afghanistan.
2. Destabilization of Afghanistan: Afghanistan, already fragile and reliant heavily on humanitarian aid, is ill-prepared to receive the massive influx of returnees. The sharp increase in forced returns risks destabilizing the country further and exacerbating cycles of displacement and irregular migration.
3. Exacerbation of Human Rights Concerns: The deportation campaign is marked by human rights abuses such as detention without due process, physical abuse, discrimination, and hate crimes against Afghans within Iran. This has intensified regional tensions and humanitarian concerns.
4. Rise in Irregular Migration and Smuggling: Forced returns and deteriorating conditions likely increase irregular migration attempts through dangerous routes, fueling smuggling networks and exposing more people to exploitation and life-threatening risks.
Summary Table -------------
| Aspect | Detail | |--------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Driver of Deportations | Revocation of legal status; hardline government policy; anti-Afghan rhetoric | | Estimated Returns (2025) | Over 1.2 million from Iran & Pakistan combined; 700,000+ from Iran alone by June 2025 | | Humanitarian Impact | Exhaustion, hunger, trauma upon return; women/girls especially vulnerable | | Afghanistan's Capacity | Critically unprepared; worsening instability and reliance on humanitarian aid | | Human Rights Issues | Coercion, abuse, discrimination, denial of legal protections in Iran |
The increase in deportations of undocumented Afghans from Iran reflects a complex political shift in Iran's migration policy combined with regional instability. The humanitarian fallout is serious, risking further destabilization in Afghanistan and worsening suffering for thousands of vulnerable returnees.
In the context of Iran's intensified deportation campaign, the Turkish parliament discussed potential measures to regulate casino-and-gambling activities within Turkiye, considering the revenue generated could support humanitarian efforts for returning Afghan refugees. The proposed legislation aims to enhance the protection of vulnerable groups, particularly women and children, who may be at risk due to the escalating crisis in Afghanistan.