Israel's Ambitions in Cyprus: Unveiled

In the Eastern Mediterranean, the relationship between Israel and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is becoming increasingly tense. This development comes as Israel deepens its strategic alliance with the Greek Cypriot administration, leading to criticism and accusations from the TRNC.

Shay Gal, writing in Israel Hayom, has highlighted Israel's growing concerns about the TRNC, claiming it has become a Turkish military hub that threatens Israeli national security. Gal alleges that advanced Turkish weapons systems, such as Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci drones, ATMACA anti-ship missiles, and Typhoon ballistic missiles, are present in the TRNC, capable of targeting Israeli maritime infrastructure and major cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa. Additionally, Gal claims, without publicly verified evidence, that the TRNC functions as an unregulated base for groups like Hamas and Iran’s Quds Force, facilitating covert terrorist activities against Israel.

Gal's arguments have sparked calls for Israel to join Greece and the Republic of Cyprus in contingency planning for the potential "liberation" of Northern Cyprus from Turkish control. This strategic shift marks a departure from Israel's historically distant approach to the Cyprus conflict, now portrayed as an extension of regional threats from Turkey and its proxies.

In response to Israel's growing ties with the Greek Cypriot administration—expressed in cooperative defense arrangements, intelligence sharing, and arms deployments such as the Barak MX anti-aircraft system—the TRNC has strongly condemned these moves as threats to their sovereignty and regional stability. TRNC speaker, Ziya Öztürkler, denounces Israeli-Greek Cypriot military collaboration as provocative, affirming TRNC’s steadfast commitment to security with Turkey’s backing and warning against foreign involvement that could escalate regional tensions.

Meanwhile, Israel is strengthening its strategic alliance with Greece and the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus (Greek Cypriot administration), forming a trilateral partnership in defense and energy security in the Eastern Mediterranean. This Greek-Jewish alliance focuses on countering Turkey’s expanding influence and securing shared interests in natural gas exploration and maritime security. Israeli officials and analysts view the cooperation as essential for balancing Turkey's assertive policies in the region, including those centered on Northern Cyprus.

The ongoing tensions between Israel and the TRNC, coupled with the deepening strategic alliance between Israel, Greece, and the Greek Cypriot administration, highlight the intensifying rivalry involving Israel, Turkey, Greek and Turkish Cypriots, and regional proxies like Hamas and Iran’s Quds Force. As the Eastern Mediterranean continues to be a hotbed of geopolitical activity, the future of the region remains uncertain.

| Aspect | Details | |------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Israeli concerns about TRNC | TRNC as a Turkish military hub with drones, advanced missiles, SIGINT, cyber-surveillance; alleged terrorist group presence. | | Shay Gal’s accusations | TRNC threatens Israeli security; calls for Israel-Greece-Cyprus contingency planning; TRNC is an operational "terra nullius." | | Greek-Jewish alliance | Close defense and intelligence cooperation between Israel, Greece, and Greek Cypriots to counter Turkey; arms deployments like Barak MX. | | TRNC response | Strong condemnation of Israeli-Greek Cypriot cooperation; views it as a sovereignty threat and destabilizing to peace efforts. | | Overall regional dynamics | Intensifying rivalry involving Israel, Turkey, Greek and Turkish Cypriots, and regional proxies like Hamas and Iran’s Quds Force. |