Last Opportunity for Alteration

CAQ Government Faces Challenging Cabinet Reshuffle

As the CAQ government enters its final year, Prime Minister François Legault is facing a challenging cabinet reshuffle. The task is complicated by the party's recent electoral struggles, concerns about re-election among its deputies, and the fallout from the Gallant Commission.

The governance culture of the CAQ government has been criticised for prioritising communications over management. Many ministers have been chosen for their communication skills rather than their ability to manage their respective portfolios. This has led to situations like the SAAQclic file, where the government seemed more concerned with managing announcements of cost overruns than intervening in the problem itself.

The CAQ's recent by-election result in Arthabaska showed a significant drop in vote share from 52% to 7.2%. According to Quebec125 electoral projections, the CAQ may win zero to three seats, placing it last in the National Assembly. The party currently holds only 17% of voting intentions, risking disappearance from the electoral map in the next election.

Two pillars of the Legault government, Geneviève Guilbault and François Bonnardel, have emerged from their appearance before the Gallant Commission with significant damage. This has further complicated the cabinet reshuffle.

Prime Minister Legault may not ask ministers like Christian Dubé or Eric Girard, who have been there since the beginning and have not disappointed, to give up their seats. Dubé has already announced that he will not be a candidate next year, while Girard has only said that he will finish his mandate, but it is generally thought that he does not want to do another one.

The CAQ government has a limited pool of potential ministers on its backbenches. Samuel Poulin from Beauce-Sud and Marilyne Picard from Soulanges are among the few potential ministers. Potential candidates for ministerial positions in François Legault's government who have not yet entered the parliament include those appointed from outside the elected members, such as experts or advisors selected for their specific expertise to serve in the cabinet.

A successful cabinet reshuffle is crucial for a potential reversal of the CAQ's current trend. The government needs to find new compelling themes to present to voters, not just reheat old ideas. The cabinet reshuffle may not be enough to reverse the trend on its own, but it is a necessary step towards regaining the trust of Quebec voters.

The CAQ deputies are generally concerned about their own re-election. A major overhaul may be necessary to provide enough evidence of change and reassure voters that the government is committed to making improvements. The cabinet reshuffle has become more complicated due to the recent work of the Gallant Commission, which showed that there are few sure values left in this government.

In conclusion, the upcoming cabinet reshuffle is a critical moment for the CAQ government. The government must address its governance issues, find new themes to appeal to voters, and ensure a successful reshuffle to have any hope of reversing its current trend. The task is challenging, but necessary if the CAQ wants to remain a viable political force in Quebec.