Lunar Expedition Vulnerable to Flame, Massive Forces, and Fuel Transfer

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has released a report this week, shedding light on the challenges facing SpaceX's lunar lander program, which is crucial for the Artemis III mission. The report highlights concerns about maturing propellant management technologies and inadequate training facilities for astronauts to manually control the Starship in emergency scenarios.

According to the GAO, SpaceX has shown flaws in controlling flammable materials in their lunar landers, specifically the Starship Human Landing System. Progress in addressing these issues includes ongoing complex demonstrations required before crewed flight certification, but significant technical challenges remain unresolved as of 2025.

The preliminary design review and critical design review for SpaceX's lunar lander system are both scheduled for 2025, but the report suggests that these deadlines may be difficult to meet. The top risk facing SpaceX's lunar lander program is the maturing of propellant management technologies to support on-orbit storage and transfer of propellant, and NASA fears this could delay Artemis III even further.

Testing is ongoing to understand and mitigate the issues with the flammable materials in the landers. A combination of oxygen and pressure levels could lead to a fire, and potentially an Apollo 1-style tragedy with the landers.

The GAO also identified an issue with Blue Origin's lunar lander design: it did not meet NASA's propellant and mass requirements. The company has made progress, but it's unclear if the problem has been resolved. Blue Origin's lander, intended for future Artemis missions, is expected to pass a critical design review this year and launch a cargo-scale lunar lander, Blue Moon Mark 1, later this year or in early 2026.

The future of the US lunar return depends on SpaceX and Blue Origin's development of lunar landers for the Orion spacecraft. The Artemis III mission, which involves the HLS Starship bringing astronauts to the lunar surface, is expected in 2027, but SpaceX's lunar orbit checkout review of that system's mission readiness is scheduled for 2028.

Despite these challenges, the administration and Congress both want to see the Artemis III mission deliver humans to the Moon in 2027. However, the GAO's report does not mention any response from SpaceX or Blue Origin regarding the issues highlighted in the report. NASA was also unable to answer questions by press time.

The GAO's report also notes that most NASA programs have avoided cost overruns, but those that didn't are largely part of the Artemis program. Since 2009, Artemis overruns alone have reached $7B, just under the $8.1B in overruns for everything else at the agency.

As the countdown to the Artemis III mission continues, these challenges underscore the complexities and risks involved in returning humans to the Moon. The success of the mission will depend on the ability of SpaceX and Blue Origin to address these issues and deliver safe and reliable lunar landers.