Mamdani continues to lead in the general election, while Hochul's advantage over Stefanik in the 2026 poll by Siena narrows down

In the latest Siena College poll conducted from August 4 to 7, 2025, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul currently leads Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik by 14 percentage points, with Hochul at 45% and Stefanik at 31% among registered New York voters.

This represents a narrowing of Hochul’s lead from 23 points in June 2025, when she was at 47% and Stefanik at 24%. The poll surveyed 813 registered New York voters and has a margin of error of +/- 6.7%.

The polling indicates that Stefanik has room to grow with voters, as only 49% of voters say they are very or somewhat familiar with her, while 46% are not very or not at all familiar with her. This is in contrast to Hochul, whose favorability among New York voters has grown by three points over the same period, from 44% to 47%.

In the mayor's race, Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani continues to lead the crowded field with 44% of the vote. Hochul still has a solid lead in New York City, with 55% to Stefanik's 19%, but Stefanik now holds a narrow lead in the city's suburbs (39% to 41%) and the pair are neck-and-neck upstate. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa is at 12% in the mayor's race, while Independent incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is at 7%.

The poll results should be taken as anecdotal, according to the pollsters. However, they suggest that the gubernatorial race is tightening as Stefanik gains ground compared to earlier polling this year. This tightening margin indicates a competitive race heading into the 2026 New York election.

It is important to note that the poll results for the mayor's race come from a New York City sample that was included as part of the statewide registered voter sample and not weighted as part of a city likely voter sample.

Republican nominee Elise Stefanik, a close ally of President Trump's, is considering a run for governor in 2026, having emerged as the most likely Republican challenger to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. Stefanik has not officially launched her bid for governor yet, indicating she would not make a decision until after this year's November election.

The Siena College poll was released on Tuesday. The latest Siena College poll found Mamdani holding a nearly 20-point lead over his next closest rival, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Republicans think Stefanik has the right experience to be governor, while Democrats do not, and independents are closely divided on the issue.

The survey found that Hochul will likely be the Democratic nominee, as she holds a commanding 35% lead over her primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado. The poll results also indicate that Stefanik has a favorability rating of 27% to 32% and 41% of voters say they do not know or have never heard of her.

In conclusion, the latest Siena College poll shows a tightening gubernatorial race between Gov. Kathy Hochul and Rep. Elise Stefanik, with Hochul currently leading by 14 percentage points. As the race draws closer, Stefanik could seize on the narrowing gap and make a strong challenge against Hochul in the 2026 New York election.