NATO troops in Ukraine scarcely envisionable

In the wake of Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, German political leaders have been discussing the potential deployment of German military forces and the status of Ukrainian refugees within the country.

Markus Söder, the CSU leader, has expressed opposition to the deployment of German troops in Ukraine as part of any security guarantees. His stance is shared by Adis Ahmetović, the SPD's foreign policy spokesman, who believes that the deployment of German ground troops is not currently appropriate.

Ahmetović also raised concerns about the unclear concrete security guarantees from the USA, suggesting that they could impact the possibilities and scope of German engagement. It's worth noting that no plans for direct NATO involvement in a force securing a peace agreement have been made at this time.

The SPD's Ahmetović also noted that Russia is not yet ready to end the war in Ukraine, and there is no ceasefire in place. He found Söder's suggestion to deport Ukrainian refugees to the front puzzling and inappropriate.

Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz, the CDU's Federal Chancellor, has not ruled out military deployment in Ukraine but considers the discussion premature. He has also stated that there are no concrete plans for a military deployment in Ukraine from Germany at this time.

Merz has further emphasised that long-term security guarantees can only be decided upon when there is a ceasefire or a peace agreement. He also highlighted that the kind of agreement reached with Russia would also impact the deployment decision.

In terms of Ukrainian refugees in Germany, it's important to note that they did not come to the country as asylum seekers but under a special rule that allowed them to start working immediately and receive citizens' allowance if they couldn't immediately earn their living. However, according to the black-red coalition's plans, people from Ukraine who arrive in Germany after April 1, 2025, will no longer receive citizens' allowance but lower benefits like as asylum seekers.

Söder has expressed a desire to change the citizens' allowance for Ukrainians in Germany, which he believes leads to a lower proportion of Ukrainians in work compared to other European countries. This proposal has been met with criticism from the Green Party leader, Franziska Brantner, who accuses Söder of populism regarding Ukrainian security matters.

A coalition of about 30 Western states, including European states, Japan, and Australia, has pledged their support for an initiative to secure a peace agreement for Ukraine. While the exact list of all 30 countries is not explicitly detailed, it includes Germany, France, and the UK, among others. The leaders of these countries met in Paris and pledged support for this initiative.

Lastly, Merz would put the deployment of German soldiers under significant reservations, echoing the sentiments of many German political leaders in the current uncertain geopolitical climate.