Peak Sales for ICE Vehicles Occurred in 2017, Electric Vehicle Market Keeps Expanding

The automobile sector is witnessing a significant shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) as the trend of increasing EV sales, particularly in the commercial vehicle market, is being observed in various parts of the world. This transformation is most notably seen in China, where electric vehicles accounted for 7% of total commercial vehicle sales last year, and heavy truck sales crossed the 5% EV mark in December.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) predicts that the worldwide fleet of combustion vehicles will remain mostly stable for the next three years. However, they anticipate that 2027 will mark the peak for global oil consumption from the transportation sector. After this point, the transition from combustion-powered vehicles to EVs is expected to have a significant impact on the amount of oil used and greenhouse gas emissions.

The trend of decreasing combustion vehicle sales is expected to continue, not only in China but also in Europe and North America. It is not expected that developing nations will be able to counterbalance this trend, as countries in Southeast Asia, where the auto market is expanding, are competing to become centers for battery and EV manufacturing.

In the United States, EV sales are poised for a breakthrough year due to the Inflation Reduction Act. The switch to electric vehicles is expected to take some time globally, but BNEF forecasts that plug-in models will account for nearly a third of all passenger vehicles sold in China this year.

The transition from combustion-powered commercial vehicles to electric vehicles is impacting the market, and the trend of decreasing combustion vehicle sales is expected to reverse itself starting in 2026 as the EV fleet grows. However, the search results do not provide specific information about Southeast Asian countries currently developing automotive battery and EV manufacturing centers.

In conclusion, the global automobile sector is moving towards a more electric future, with China leading the way in EV adoption in the commercial vehicle market. The trend is expected to continue, with the United States and other regions following suit. The shift towards EVs will have a significant impact on global oil consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, making it an important development to monitor in the coming years.