Plummeting oil prices, with additional OPEC oil in the pipeline.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) are set to consider a new round of production increases at their meeting this coming weekend. The decision, if made, could potentially exacerbate the predicted oversupply in the oil market in the fourth quarter.

Most analysts and traders had expected the production level to remain unchanged for October. However, the OPEC cartel has surprised the markets several times this year by pursuing a strategy to regain market share. This strategy is likely to lead to a significant oversupply in the oil market in the fourth quarter, according to many traders and analysts.

The current oil price is dropping rapidly, falling from $65.25 to $64.21 in the last 45 minutes. The drop in oil price is due to the current outlook that the expanded OPEC+ cartel could bring more oil onto the world market. If the OPEC+ increases production as expected, it could exacerbate the predicted oversupply in the oil market in the fourth quarter.

An OPEC delegate had said last month that the producer group could consider several options at its September meeting, including an increase or decrease in production. The OPEC+ alliance is now considering these options, with two sources familiar with the discussions confirming that a further increase in production will be considered at a meeting on Sunday.

The two sources reporting on a possible increase in OPEC+ oil production at their weekend meeting are the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Igor Setschin, CEO of the Russian oil company Rosneft.

Interestingly, the supply outside the OPEC group is expected to increase significantly by the end of 2025. This could further add to the oversupply in the oil market, potentially putting downward pressure on oil prices.

Despite these developments, pessimism about the oil price persists due to the expected oversupply in the fourth quarter. The markets will closely watch the OPEC+ meeting this weekend to gauge the group's decision and its potential impact on the oil market.