Projected vehicle expenditures to surpass monthly milestone in July, according to JD Power
The automotive industry is navigating a complex landscape in July 2025, with U.S. tariffs on imported vehicles and parts influencing future sales data. According to a sales forecast by J.D. Power and GlobalData, total new vehicle sales are projected to rise 3.2% over July 2024.
Several external factors, such as a dealer outage in June 2024, tariff concerns, a reduction in incentives, and the impending expiration of the federal electric vehicle tax credit on Sept. 30, have obscured the true strength of the sales growth. The impact of tariffs on individual models varies widely, and analysts warn that they have affected manufacturer incentive programs.
Despite these challenges, retail sales are set to post an even stronger gain, forecast to increase 4.1% over July 2024. If not adjusting for the difference in the number of selling days, retail sales are forecast to increase 8.2%. This robust growth is partly due to the impending expiration of the federal electric vehicle tax credit, which has helped to boost sales in July.
The average new vehicle retail purchase price is forecast to reach $45,063 in July 2025, an increase of $938 or 2% compared to July 2024. This rise is partly attributed to tariffs, which are increasing new vehicle prices by an average of $4,275. However, the average discount package in July 2025 is down to 6.1% of vehicle price, compared to 6.2% in July 2024, suggesting a slight easing in discounts.
Total consumer spending on new vehicles is expected to hit a record $49.8 billion in July 2025. The automobile brand with the largest sales increase in July 2025, with a growth of 4.1%, is Ford Motor.
Manufacturers continue to prioritize retail buyers over the historically less-profitable fleet channel. Fleet sales are projected to decline 0.8% year-over-year. When not adjusted for the number of selling days, combined retail and non-retail sales are expected to rise 7.4% year-over-year.
Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power, stated that the retail sales growth in July is "even more so" strong when considering these factors. Vehicle sales that pulled forward this spring due to tariff concerns are now being paid back, contributing to the robust sales figures in July 2025.
In conclusion, while tariffs continue to be a significant factor affecting the automotive industry, the resilience of the retail market is evident in the strong sales growth forecast for July 2025.
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