Rankings of Overvalued and Undervalued Teams in the Latest AP Top 25 Poll

The 2025 college football season's Week One has concluded, and the rankings are starting to take shape. While the AP Top 25 Poll continues to be the most widely-known ranking system, an alternative perspective is provided by SP+, a forward-looking ranking created by Bill Connelly and hosted by ESPN.

SP+ helps provide a check on human biases and assumptions in the AP Poll. This system looks at offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency relative to the average college football team. For instance, the Ole Miss Rebels are currently ranked 4th in the SP+ efficiency and analytics-based rankings, higher than their 20th position in the AP Poll.

Preseason rankings and assumptions can heavily influence week one rankings, both positively and negatively. Texas, who started as the preseason number one in the AP Poll, dropped to 13th in SP+ after the first week. On the other hand, Ole Miss, who rank 4th in the SP+ rankings, are significantly higher than their 20th position in the AP Poll.

The Rebels' SP+ rating of about 23.9 projects them to have the No. 18 offense and the 7th-best defense in the nation. Their SP+ projection estimates a 9.0-win season, reflecting strong analytics despite the lower AP ranking.

Not all teams follow this trend, however. The USC Trojans are 14th in the SP+ rankings, despite not cracking the top 25 in the AP Poll. Similarly, Notre Dame is ranked 18th in SP+, far lower than their 9th position in the AP Poll.

Several SEC teams are "underrated" by the AP Poll, according to SP+. Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Alabama are all ranked higher in SP+ than in the AP Poll. Oklahoma sits at 7th in SP+, Tennessee at 8th, and Alabama at 11th.

Meanwhile, the AP Poll has seen some movement. Miami has moved into the top-5, while the LSU Tigers have jumped into the top 3. Alabama, on the other hand, has fallen into the low-20's.

Missouri, Louisville, TCU, and Auburn are also teams that could be in the top 25 according to SP+, but are currently unranked in the AP Poll.

As the season progresses, the preseason projections in SP+ will gradually be phased out, providing an even clearer picture of each team's true standing. For now, both rankings offer valuable insights, offering fans a comprehensive view of the college football landscape.