Russia's closest allies facing potential EU sanctions as idea resurfaces

The European Union (EU) is contemplating the imposition of new sanctions on Russia, as well as the activation of the "Anti-Circumvention Tool" to combat widespread, systematic, and long-lasting cases of sanctions evasion.

The Anti-Circumvention Tool, introduced two years ago, targets such cases of evasion across a variety of companies and sectors within a country. The focus of previous sanctions has been on individual names, but this new approach aims to address the systemic issue.

However, securing unanimity for the implementation of secondary sanctions might prove challenging due to diplomatic pitfalls and potential antagonism of other countries. The EU's 19th package of sanctions may face difficulties in continuing to take meaningful actions against third countries to alter calculations and force choices on third-party actors.

The EU is considering targeting Russia's oil, gas, financial, and cryptocurrency sectors, as well as the "shadow fleet" used by Russia to bypass sanctions. If activated, the Anti-Circumvention Tool can prohibit the sale, supply, and transfer of goods and technology that can facilitate Russia's war of aggression, affecting the entire nation's economy.

The discussions about the new sanctions and the activation of the Anti-Circumvention Tool will take place during a meeting of the EU's foreign affairs ministers in Copenhagen on Saturday.

China, Hong Kong, India, and Turkey are depicted as major exporters of "high priority goods" to Russia, according to a discussion paper prepared by the Danish presidency. EU officials have accused China of supplying 80% of the components used by the Kremlin to manufacture weapons. In response to the EU blacklisting two Chinese crypto lenders accused of aiding circumvention, Beijing retaliated by sanctioning two Lithuanian banks.

The activation of the Anti-Circumvention Tool requires unanimous support from all 27 member states of the European Union. Hungary and Slovakia have a history of complicating the internal process to obtain concessions and water down the scope of EU sanctions.

The Trump administration might find an interest in seeing the prompt adoption of a hard-hitting package by the EU to increase sanctions pressure on Russia. The European Commission can propose the activation of the Anti-Circumvention Tool after conducting a thorough data analysis and engaging in diplomatic consultations that prove unsuccessful.

It is not clear which countries in the European Union have not been sanctioned with the Anti-Circumvention Tool to prevent evasion of sanctions against Russia. The search results do not provide this information.

The economic stagnation and geopolitical instability make it unlikely that member states will deploy the Anti-Circumvention Tool against China and risk an all-out clash. The fight against the circumvention of sanctions has been compared to a whack-a-mole game, as once a loophole is identified and closed, three new ones emerge.

Guo Jiakun, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, stated that China opposes unilateral sanctions without a basis in international law. The EU's decision to impose new sanctions and activate the Anti-Circumvention Tool, if made, will likely have significant implications for the global political landscape.