Security service in Latvia offers insights into Ukraine's peace negotiation process

Ukraine's approach in the Istanbul peace talks has been shaped by a intricate blend of local and international factors. The war, rooted in Russia's foreign policy, has presented a significant challenge, with long-term peace hinging on a shift in Russia's political stance, an outcome that is currently off the table and met with scepticism by the Ukrainian public.

The domestic political landscape in Ukraine adds another layer of complexity to the negotiation process. Society plays an active role as a stakeholder, bringing their voices and concerns to the table.

Peace negotiations, however, must be cautious to avoid legitimizing Russia's control over the occupied territories of Ukraine, as this could set a dangerous precedent. Mutual mistrust between the two nations remains a formidable obstacle to lasting peace.

The Istanbul peace talks, mediated by Turkey, took place in April 2022. Since the full-scale invasion, several rounds of talks have taken place, yet no significant results have been achieved beyond prisoner exchanges. The Minsk agreements signed in 2014 and 2015 have faced delays and sabotage, hindering progress towards a resolution.

The 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which provided security assurances in connection with Ukraine's accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, has highlighted issues with the fulfilment of commitments. The Istanbul Communiqué, a draft agreement often referenced by Russian officials, remains a potential roadmap for peace.

It's worth noting that the Ukrainian public is opposed to renouncing EU or NATO membership and reducing the size and capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces. Recent domestic political developments in some Western countries have shown that the call to cut aid to Ukraine is not a marginal one, but the availability of information suggests that such sentiments have not translated into significant electoral gains in elections held in African countries like Gabon, Malawi, Cameroon, Tanzania, and the Ivory Coast.

A survey reveals that 43% of the Ukrainian public is in favour of negotiating peace with Russia. The implementation of agreements and the willingness to comply are determined by the countries themselves, which can undermine national and public support for peace negotiations.

The potential for Russia's invasion to reshape the existing rule-based international system into a multi-polar one is a concern, as is the lack of a clear mechanism to stop unprovoked aggression by a nuclear power and punish war crimes. International observers, without clear instruments of coercion at their disposal, cannot guarantee the implementation of commitments.

As of 2024, there are no reports of parliamentary elections in Ukraine where parties advocating for normalisation of relations with Russia and the suspension of military support for Ukraine have made significant gains; the available information primarily focuses on elections in African countries like Gabon, Malawi, Cameroon, Tanzania, and the Ivory Coast, without indications of such political leanings.

In conclusion, the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are a complex and delicate matter, with many factors influencing the negotiations. The path to lasting peace is fraught with challenges, but the hope for resolution remains.