State Debt Expansion BeyondExpected Limits Approved by Siluanov, Extending Until 2025
Russia's state debt landscape is undergoing significant changes, with the minister planning to increase the debt this year. As of 2025, the total state debt stands at approximately 35.41 trillion rubles, which equates to 16.5% of the country's GDP.
Of this total debt, 29.38 trillion rubles are internal, while 6 trillion rubles are external. The increase in state debt servicing expenditures in the federal budget has been noticeable, reaching 5.8% in the structure of the federal budget. In 2024 alone, 2.33 trillion rubles were spent on servicing state debt, marking a 35.1% increase compared to the previous year.
The Accounts Chamber of Russia reported this increase, attributing it to an increase in the volume of internal borrowings and an increase in interest rates. The finance minister, too, acknowledged the increase, stating that it will occur within reasonable limits, avoiding major imbalances for the budget.
The minister also highlighted several limitations to increasing debt. These include the cost of servicing loans, the relationship between the volume of borrowings and the strictness of the Central Bank of Russia's monetary policy, and the need to maintain a "solid structure" to protect against sanctions imposed by the West.
It's worth noting that Russia has no external investors for market capacity, meaning all borrowing is internal. As borrowing increases, the Central Bank's ability to lower the interest rate decreases, posing another challenge.
Looking ahead, the budget project for 2026, 2027, and 2028 will be prepared based on the normative budget rule. However, there are currently no recent publicly available figures for the planned total amount of Russia's public debt in 2026.
Despite the growing state debt, it's important to remember that the current state debt in Russia is still considered small compared to some other countries. Nonetheless, it's a trend that warrants close attention as we move forward.
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