System allows for the inclusion of the Wagon Party in its ranks

In the political landscape of Germany, a new force is emerging, led by Sahra Wagenknecht and her party, the "Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht - Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit" (BSW). This party, aiming to establish a new "left-conservative" force in Germany, has been gaining significant traction, particularly in Eastern Germany.

According to recent polls, the BSW is projected to receive approximately 11.8% of the vote in Saxony (15 seats), 15.8% in Thuringia (15 seats), and 13.5% in Brandenburg (14 seats) in the 2024 state elections. However, recent 2025 polls indicate slightly lower support: around 9% in Thuringia, 6% in Saxony-Anhalt (neighboring state), and similar levels in the region.

The BSW appeals to change-skeptical milieus in the middle and lower classes, a demographic more prevalent in East Germany. These voters have traditionally been supportive of parties like the AfD, SPD, CDU, and Die Linke, with the Greens performing below average among this group in the last federal election.

Wagenknecht's promise to these dissatisfied milieus is clear: "With me, there will be more money for working people in Germany and less for foreigners, climate laws, gender debates, and those at the top."

The BSW aims to combine left and conservative elements, drawing inspiration from successful examples in other European countries such as the Socialist Party in the Netherlands and the Communist Party of Greece. The party could potentially fill the left-conservative spectrum currently unfilled in Germany, as the FDP occupies the right-liberal quadrant.

The success of the BSW could lead to significant changes in the German political landscape. If the BSW gains significant strength, new alliances between the CDU, SPD, and BSW could form, potentially creating a "Black-Red-Purple" coalition in eastern Germany. This election year will show whether such a coalition is realistic for weakening the AfD in the long run.

Wagenknecht's political communication on YouTube and TikTok has been particularly successful. Her videos, which have been viewed millions of times, reach people beyond her own supporters. In contrast, Olaf Scholz's YouTube channel has a significantly smaller audience. Wagenknecht was the most frequently invited politician in German political talk shows in 2013, 2016, and 2017. Apart from the AfD, no other parties have been able to establish successful political communication on these platforms.

As of January 2024, Wagenknecht had over 750,000 followers on Facebook, 670,000 on YouTube, 300,000 on TikTok, and 238,000 on Instagram. The BSW could use this campaign infrastructure to mobilize crucial votes for parliamentary entry.

In November 2023, 28% of potential BSW voters cited Wagenknecht as their reason for voting for the party. The 2024 election year will be crucial for the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, as failure in the European elections and eastern state elections could cast doubt on its role in the party system.

Previous research indicates that the potential supporters of the BSW lean towards immigration-critical, pro-Russia, and socially conservative positions, with parallels drawn with the AfD. However, the BSW aims to offer a political home to voters who find no exclusive political home in a single party, as many studies demonstrate that voter positions cover a broader spectrum than the basic orientation of political parties.

This year will be a pivotal moment for the BSW and the German political system. The results of the elections could shape the future of German politics for years to come.