The Close Coordination Between Russia and Syria is a Short-Term Requirement

In the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, the relationship between Russia and Syria has undergone significant changes. The warming of ties between the two nations appears to be a pragmatic maneuver by Syria's new authorities during this period of instability and statehood formation.

The most recent turn in bilateral relations was marked by a Syrian delegation's visit to Moscow in late July, led by Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra and Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani. This visit follows a period where Syria had been pushing Russia out of the country, but is now prepared to entertain the notion of expanding the Russian presence to counterbalance the Israeli forces.

Under the leadership of President Bashar al-Assad, Russia acted as a constraining force on Israel's actions in Syria, both through the presence of Russian troops and concrete actions. However, the recent escalations have prompted an intervention from Israel, which came to the defense of the Druze and launched attacks against Syrian government forces. The recent assassinations of senior political figures in Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian military have made it clear to Syria's Islamist rulers that Israel's potential escalation could be severe.

The Syrian Defense Minister who appeared in Moscow in July was Ali Abdullah Ayyoub. The current warming of ties seems to be driven by the need for Damascus to find at least some kind of counterweight to Israel. Israeli forces have significantly expanded the area they control around the Golan Heights and carry out regular airstrikes against government targets.

The Syrian authorities have annulled old agreements concluded with the Kremlin, including one for a Russian company to manage the strategic port of Tartus. However, Syria has changed its mind about no longer printing its pounds in Russia and will continue to do so. This decision could be influenced by the scale of Western sanctions imposed on Russia, which could make cooperation with Moscow very costly for Damascus.

The large-scale clashes between Syria's new Islamist authorities and the Druze minority in Sweida have demonstrated the precarious position of the new Syrian authorities. In response, Damascus has tightened inspections for those approaching Russian military bases and the bases have been subjected to armed attacks.

In the past, the Russian military avoided direct clashes with the Israelis and allowed them to destroy individual Iranian and pro-Iranian targets, but they also intervened to shoot down Israeli missiles near Russian bases. The resumption of Russian troops' patrols around the city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria and reports suggesting that the Syrian government has asked Moscow to resume military police patrols in the country's southern provinces indicate a renewed role for Russia as a constraining force.

The long-term obstacles to Russia's presence in Syria, such as Moscow's preoccupation with the war in Ukraine and Syria's past grievances against Moscow, have not gone away. However, the pragmatic approach of both parties seems to be steering the relationship towards a more stable future, at least for the time being.