Tiger Lefty Tarik Skubal Maintains Strong Lead in American League Cy Young Vote Count
In the American League, the race for the Cy Young Award is heating up as the season progresses. Here's a roundup of some of the top performers, based on the current season's performance evaluation approach that relies on batted ball data.
Leading the pack is LHP Tarik Skubal (Tigers), who has already passed the 162-inning ERA qualification threshold and is expected to hold the top spot at the end of the season. Skubal's impressive stats include a TPRAA of 32.7, a "Tru"- of 58, an ERA- of 53, and an FIP- of 53.
Close behind is LHP Garrett Crochet (Red Sox), who holds the #2 ranking with a TPRAA of 24.8, a "Tru"- of 68, an ERA- of 56, and an FIP- of 61. Crochet also boasts the lowest average fly ball exit speed among this group, at 88.8 mph.
RHP Joe Ryan (Twins) maintains his 3rd place ranking with a TPRAA of 20.9, a "Tru"- of 70, an ERA- of 75, and an FIP- of 78. Ryan's success can be attributed to an average launch angle of 17.9 degrees, the highest among the hurlers discussed, making him a pop-up machine.
Another notable mention is RHP Bryan Woo (Mariners), who has moved up from #7 to #4 on the list with a TPRAA of 20.7, a "Tru"- of 72, an ERA- of 77, and an FIP- of 78. Injuries to the Mariners' rotation have not affected Woo's performance this season.
The "Tru" Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA) is determined by spreading "Tru" ERA- across innings bulk. The "Tru" ERA- is calculated by adding back Ks and BBs. Fangraphs WAR ranks Skubal (6.2), Crochet (5.4), and Brown (4.2) in the top three spots.
LHP Hunter Brown (Astros) and Jacob deGrom (Rangers) are tied at #5 with 18.9 TPRAA each. Brown, the Cy Young candidate from the Detroit Tigers mentioned as a favorite this season according to the scientific method, derives most of his success from a strong K/BB profile.
Meanwhile, Framber Valdez (8.1 TPRAA) has maintained his position he did a month ago, with his success stemming from generating grounders.
Rounding out the top ten, there are no real sleepers at this point, and newcomer Kevin Gausman (9.4 TPRAA) has entered the Top 10 this month.
In addition to TPRAA, the Adjusted Contact Score is another important metric in evaluating elite performance. A lower Adjusted Contact Score indicates better performance. Notably, Carlos Rodon has seen a huge development with an 88 Adjusted Contact Score, and his 81 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is the best among this group.
As the season progresses, these top performers will continue to battle it out for the coveted Cy Young Award. Stay tuned for updates on the race for the top pitching honours in the American League.
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