Trump predicts that Putin will respond if oil prices drop by an additional $10

Russia has rejected U.S. President Donald Trump's ultimatum to cease the war in Ukraine and agree to a ceasefire within 50 days, setting a new deadline for August 8 [2]. Despite Trump's tougher stance and increasing frustration, Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to sign a ceasefire deal by the given timeline [2].

Following this rejection, Trump announced a plan to meet with Putin on August 15, 2025, in Alaska to discuss ending the war [3]. This meeting is seen as a potential breakthrough after months of stalled negotiations, though there is no guarantee it will immediately end the conflict, as Moscow and Kyiv remain far apart on terms [3].

Previously, Trump had shown some willingness to accept many Kremlin demands, including allowing Russia to keep control over occupied Ukrainian territories and easing sanctions [1]. However, the ultimatum and tariff threats marked a change in approach.

Meanwhile, the price of gasoline in Russia has reached a new historical high of 77,967 rubles per ton on August 5, following drone strikes by the Ukrainian military on two major oil refineries in Novokuibyshevsk and Rяzan on the night of August 2 [4].

Despite the potential impact of these sanctions, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian President, has spoken of a "certain immunity" to potential sanctions, as the Russian economy has been functioning "under a huge amount of restrictions" for a "sufficiently long time." [5]

In a statement on CNBC on August 5, Trump said that Putin would halt Russia's war in Ukraine if oil prices dropped another $10 per barrel [6]. Trump's special envoy, Stephen Whitkoff, is scheduled to visit Moscow on August 6 or 7 [7].

According to reports, India and China will continue to buy Russian oil despite pressure from the U.S. and EU [4]. This decision has contributed to the drop in the price of Brent crude, which has fallen below $68 per barrel since the beginning of the week [4]. The drop in prices was also influenced by the OPEC+ decision to increase production from September and the discovery of a major oil and gas field by British company BP in Brazil [4].

In summary, Russia has not accepted Trump's ultimatum related to halting the war, and diplomatic efforts are continuing with an upcoming U.S.-Russia summit planned to try to address the conflict [1][2][3]. The price of gasoline in Russia has reached a new historical high, while the price of Brent crude has dropped due to various factors, including the OPEC+ decision to increase production and the discovery of a major oil and gas field by BP in Brazil. India and China will continue to buy Russian oil despite pressure from the U.S. and EU.

In the realm of world politics, Trump's ultimatum to Russia over the war in Ukraine and the subsequent ceasefire deadline has been rejected, leading to the scheduling of a potential summit between Trump and Putin on August 15, 2025, to discuss the conflict [1, 2, 3].
Amidst the ongoing war-and-conflicts, the price of gasoline in Russia has hit a new record high, further exacerbating the economic conditions [4].
Despite increased pressure from the U.S. and EU, India and China have opted to continue casino-and-gambling in purchasing Russian oil, contributing to the drop in the price of Brent crude [4].
As policy-and-legislation surrounding sanctions and oil prices evolve, there are indications of a "certain immunity" in the Russian economy, having functioned under restrictions for a considerable period [5].