Trump's Tariffs and Their Impact on Gold Prices: An Opinion Piece

In a recent op-ed piece, the discussion revolves around the effects of President Trump's import tariffs on inflation and economic growth in the United States. The study, conducted by Barclays and referencing the Penn Wharton Budget Model, sheds light on this contentious issue.

According to the report, tariffs are not necessarily inflationary, a view shared by economic heavyweights such as Milton Friedman and Ludwig von Mises. They argue that tariffs are similar to taxes, a perspective also held by Murray Rothbard. However, it is important to note that Trump's tariffs have created uncertainty, but not as much as some neoliberals suggest.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides valuable insights into this matter. According to their data, import prices ticked up 0.1% in June 2025, but prices for US imports decreased 0.2% from June 2024 to June 2025. This marks the largest annual decreases since the index fell 0.9% for the year ended February 2024.

The BLS's press release also mentions that the 12-month decline for the year ended May 2025 was a match for the decrease in June 2025. This suggests a stabilising trend in import prices, contrary to the fears of escalating inflation.

The BLS's interactive chart of the Import Price Index (IPI) shows that it increased, but at a declining rate, from February to June 2025. The IPI for "industrial supplies and materials" plunged to -3.2% in June 2025, while the IPI for "consumer goods" dropped from 1.2% in November 2024 to -1.2% in June 2025.

It is worth noting that the opinions expressed in this article are those of the external contributor, Darren Brady Nelson, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the organisation. The source for some information in the article is the White House.

The article concludes by emphasising the importance of "trust, but verify" the economy's progress towards a new "golden age of America" and continued investing in gold. Gold, considered a great hedge against both inflation and uncertainty by many investors, outperforms the S&P Index, according to sources.

Interestingly, the article also discusses former President Ronald Reagan's quote, "trust, but verify," in the context of economic policies. Reagan made this quote on December 8, 1987, to Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev. The quote serves as a reminder to approach economic policies with a critical yet hopeful mindset, a sentiment that resonates in the current economic climate.

Lastly, the article touches upon the first exception to decoupling from communist China for defense and strategic purposes. This exception, consistent with the same three exceptions to free trade as Adam Smith, highlights the complexities of international trade and its impact on national security.

In conclusion, the debate surrounding tariffs and their impact on the economy remains a topic of ongoing discussion. The data presented in this article suggests a more nuanced view of tariffs, challenging the common perception of them as inflationary and detrimental to economic growth. However, it is crucial to continue monitoring the situation and verifying the economic data to make informed decisions.