Uncertain prospects loom for German international trade, as per BGA's recent assessment
The outcome of the upcoming US elections is expected to have a significant impact on foreign trade, particularly for Germany. Regardless of the election outcome, transatlantic relations will not return to their old paths.
The current political situation in the United States, marked by President Donald Trump's presidency starting in 2025, is marked by mixed public reactions. While there is low approval for agency cuts, there is some support for cultural conservative measures. Trump's stance toward the Ukraine conflict involves pressuring for a Russia-favorable peace, indicating a potential US withdrawal from active responsibility there. This political uncertainty and shifting foreign policy may negatively affect global trade relations and add volatility to German foreign trade, especially through tariff changes and geopolitical tensions.
The recovery path of Germany's foreign trade remains at a low level. This is further complicated by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, which continues to cause infection numbers to rise worldwide. By the end of the year, the coronavirus could potentially negatively impact Germany's foreign trade.
Brexit, the impending exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, is also expected to have a negative impact on German foreign trade. Brexit has already left clear traces in bilateral trade between Germany and the United Kingdom, and its taking increasingly absurd turns could exacerbate these effects. The impending exit of the United Kingdom is expected to have a similar negative impact on German foreign trade.
It is hoped that the handling of transatlantic relations will be more civilized, regardless of the election outcome. However, the ongoing challenges posed by the coronavirus and Brexit, as well as the uncertain political climate in the United States, suggest that the road to recovery for German foreign trade will be a long and challenging one.
The foreign trade of Germany is on a recovery path, albeit at a low level. The ongoing coronavirus pandemic and the impending exit of the United Kingdom are significant obstacles, but the resilience of the German economy and the determination of its leaders to navigate these challenges offer hope for a brighter future.
No new information about the impact of the US elections on German foreign trade was provided in this paragraph. However, it is clear that the upcoming elections will have far-reaching consequences for global trade relations, and Germany will need to adapt and respond accordingly.
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