Upcoming Significant Dates for Turkish Markets: September 11th and 15th

The Turkish Lira (TRY) exchange rate saw a limited 0.25% gain last week, moving towards 41.24 against the US Dollar. This modest increase comes amidst a series of economic developments and political uncertainties in the country.

One of the key events on the horizon is the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for September 11, 2025. Initially, a 300 basis-point cut was expected from the CBRT's September meeting, but following recent developments, expectations have fallen to 200 basis points. This anticipated rate cut could have a significant impact on the markets, providing some relief from the ongoing economic pressures.

JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley have revised their interest rate cut forecasts from 300 basis points to 200, aligning with the current market expectations.

Another significant event is a court ruling expected on September 15, 2025, in a lawsuit seeking the annulment of the CHP congress. This ruling could potentially lead to the removal of CHP party leader Özgür Özel and further legal disputes over the annulment of the 2023 CHP congress. Annulling the congress could lead to greater uncertainty, which may have negative effects on the markets.

The cancellation of the main opposition Republican People's Party's (CHP) 2023 Istanbul Congress and August inflation data exceeding expectations with a figure above 2% have reduced risk appetite in the markets last week. Annual inflation, however, fell to 32.95% in August, maintaining its downward trend.

The two-year benchmark bond yield in Türkiye started last week at 38.93, tested above 41, and closed at 40.78 on Friday. The Borsa Istanbul index closed at 10,729, down by -4.95% last week, marking the biggest weekly loss since the week of March 19.

Istanbul stocks opened 1.5% lower this week amid escalating opposition turmoil. The CBRT's reserves fell by about $6.4 billion on Sept. 2-3, but on Sept. 4, the daily balance turned positive again by $300 million.

It's worth noting that there is no information about the privatization of iconic Istanbul bridges in the provided paragraphs.

Legally, three outcomes are possible: postponement, annulment, or dismissal of the case. A decision that reduces or ends political uncertainty could be positive for the markets. On the other hand, dismissal or postponement of the case may have positive effects on the markets, while annulling the congress could lead to increased uncertainty and potential market volatility.

New risks and new pricing trends may emerge due to increased uncertainty. Markets may shift to a more cautious stance until Sept. 15, 2025, as they await the court ruling and the CBRT's Monetary Policy Committee meeting. A survey conducted by Anadolu Agency expects the CBRT to cut its policy rate by 200 basis points, bringing it down to 41%.

In conclusion, the Turkish economy is facing a critical period, with several key events on the horizon. The CBRT's Monetary Policy Committee meeting and the court ruling on September 15, 2025, are particularly important, as they could significantly impact the markets and the Turkish Lira exchange rate.