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In a recent ARD "Germany Trend" Sunday questionnaire, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has reached a new high with 25% support, should the Bundestag election be held on Sunday. The CDU/CSU remains the strongest force, unchanged from the previous month, with 27% support.

The SPD, however, is facing a challenging time, with a potential record low of 7% if the election were held on Sunday. The Greens and the FDP would not be represented in the Bundestag under these circumstances. The SPD gained one percentage point to reach 14% support, followed by the Greens with 11% (+1) and the Left with 10% (unchanged).

The AfD's rise is not limited to the eastern states. In Saxony-Anhalt, they are currently the strongest party, polling at 39%. In North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), local elections are scheduled for September 14, and political scientist Oliver Lembcke from the University of Bochum predicts that the AfD has good chances to expand its results and establish itself permanently in structurally weak regions with industrial decline, such as Gelsenkirchen or Duisburg.

The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified the AfD as a confirmed right-wing extremist endeavor, but this classification is currently on hold due to a lawsuit by the AfD. CSU politician Alexander Dobrindt, who generally does not comment on the future handling of the party due to ongoing proceedings, reiterated that he has no doubt that the AfD is a right-wing extremist party.

Interestingly, 37% of respondents in Saxony-Anhalt would prefer an AfD-led government, while around 47% would prefer a CDU-led state government. A coalition of CDU, SPD, and FDP is currently in power in Saxony-Anhalt.

The AfD's success is also evident in other states. They lead in polls in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Brandenburg, and have a strong lead in Saxony and Thuringia. In the 2025 federal election, the AfD also won the majority in some western constituencies like Gelsenkirchen and Kaiserslautern.

The local elections in NRW, scheduled for September 14, are expected to provide further insights into the political landscape of Germany. The issues of waste, drug consumption, and social decay in the city center of Cologne are central election campaign issues, adding another layer of complexity to the political landscape.