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In the financial world, eyes are turned towards the upcoming Jackson Hole central bank meeting, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set to speak. However, investors expect relatively little new information from Powell's speech, as the steepening yield curve indicates that long-term interest rates are rising faster than short-term rates. This trend, often seen as a sign of economic optimism, has been a result of the Fed's decision to delay tapering.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, economic indicators across the eurozone remain relatively strong. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to reduce PEPP purchases after the September meeting, signalling a shift in monetary policy. However, the future of these programs is uncertain, with debates raging over whether the ECB will extend the PEPP or announce further asset purchase programs. The hawks on the ECB council are currently unlikely to announce such programs.
The delay in the tapering decision by the US Federal Reserve has boosted sentiment for risk assets. However, it's important to note that a significant portion of the downward trend in economic data is due to bottlenecks in supply chains. In many areas, a backlog of demand is meeting reduced supply, causing some weakness in recent economic data. This situation could further increase prices in the near future.
Despite these challenges, European fiscal policy is expected to boost growth prospects in the coming quarters. Recent disruptions in corporate outlooks and uncertainties related to Covid-19 have also impacted the economic landscape, but the underlying trend remains stable.
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In summary, while the Fed has delayed its decision on the start of tapering until November, the overall economic outlook remains positive, albeit with challenges in the short term. The eurozone economy, on the other hand, remains strong, with European fiscal policy expected to drive growth in the coming quarters.
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